IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/2420.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shadow seniority? Lending relationships and borrowers’ selective default

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco González

    (UNIVERSIDAD DE OVIEDO)

  • José E. Gutiérrez

    (Banco de España)

  • José María Serena

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper analyzes how lending relationships affect firms’ incentives to default, drawing on loan-level data in Spain. We provide new evidence showing that firms first default on loans from less important (“non-main”) banks to preserve their most valuable lending relationships. Our findings also indicate that banks integrate this borrower behavior into their credit risk management because the most important banks within a borrower’s set of lending relationships recognize lower discretionary loan impairments. The results are robust to alternative difference-in-difference (DID) analyses and control for potential bank forbearance, loan characteristics, and a variety of time-varying bank and firm fixed effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco González & José E. Gutiérrez & José María Serena, 2024. "Shadow seniority? Lending relationships and borrowers’ selective default," Working Papers 2420, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2420
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/36695
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/24/Files/dt2420e.pdf
    File Function: First version, June 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.53479/36695?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    3. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1995. "The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    2. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
    3. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
    4. Robert M. Bushman & Christopher D. Williams & Regina Wittenberg‐Moerman, 2017. "The Informational Role of the Media in Private Lending," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 55(1), pages 115-152, March.
    5. Mark Clintworth & Dimitrios Lyridis & Evangelos Boulougouris, 2023. "Financial risk assessment in shipping: a holistic machine learning based methodology," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 90-121, March.
    6. Giuseppe Arcuri & Nadine Levratto, 2020. "Early stage SME bankruptcy: does the local banking market matter?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 421-436, February.
    7. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
    8. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2019. "Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Alessio D’Ignazio & Marco Gallo & Giacinto Micucci, 2015. "The Role of Leverage in Firm Solvency: Evidence From Bank Loans," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(2), pages 253-286, July.
    10. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-40.
    11. Gropp, Reint & Guettler, Andre, 2018. "Hidden gems and borrowers with dirty little secrets: Investment in soft information, borrower self-selection and competition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 26-39.
    12. Giuseppe Arcuri & Nadine Levratto, 2017. "New firms’ bankruptcy: does local banking market matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Özgür Arslan & Mehmet Baha Karan, 2009. "Credit risks and internationalization of SMEs," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-368, September.
    14. Botsch, Matthew & Vanasco, Victoria, 2019. "Learning by lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Hernán Ortiz-Molina & María Penas, 2008. "Lending to small businesses: the role of loan maturity in addressing information problems," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 361-383, April.
    16. Hyeongjun Kim & Hoon Cho & Doojin Ryu, 2022. "Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Using Machine Learning Methodologies with a Focus on Sequential Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 1231-1249, March.
    17. Yili Lian, 2018. "Bank competition and the cost of bank loans," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 253-282, July.
    18. Nan Hu & Jian Li & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2019. "Completing the Market: Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2019/292, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Simon Cornée, 2014. "Soft Information and Default Prediction in Cooperative and Social Banks," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 89-103, June.
    20. Berger, Allen N. & Bonaccorsi di Patti, Emilia, 2006. "Capital structure and firm performance: A new approach to testing agency theory and an application to the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1065-1102, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.