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Modelling the Macrofinancial Effects of a House Price Correction in Canada


  • Thibaut Duprey
  • Xuezhi Liu
  • Cameron MacDonald
  • Maarten van Oordt
  • Sofia Priazhkina
  • Xiangjin Shen
  • Joshua Slive


We use a suite of risk-assessment models to examine the possible impact of a hypothetical house price correction, centred in the Toronto and Vancouver areas. We also assume financial stress significantly amplifies the macroeconomic impact of the house price decline. The rates of arrears rise for households and businesses, which puts some pressure on banks. But the large banks remain resilient through the risk scenario, supported by their international diversification and their ability to replenish capital with retained earnings. As with any simulation exercise, the results are subject to significant uncertainty and depend on the specifics of the scenario being considered.

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  • Thibaut Duprey & Xuezhi Liu & Cameron MacDonald & Maarten van Oordt & Sofia Priazhkina & Xiangjin Shen & Joshua Slive, 2018. "Modelling the Macrofinancial Effects of a House Price Correction in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-36, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:18-36

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    2. Cameron MacDonald & Virginie Traclet, 2018. "The Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment," Technical Reports 113, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2020. "Resilience of Canadian banks to funding liquidity shocks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).

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    More about this item


    Financial Institutions; Financial stability; Housing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages


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