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Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition

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  • Thibaut Duprey

Abstract

I construct a new composite measure of systemic financial market stress for Canada. Compared with existing measures, it better captures the 1990 housing market correction and more accurately reflects the absence of diversification opportunities during systemic events. The index can be used for monitoring. For instance, during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, it reached a peak second only to the 2008 global financial crisis. The index can also be used to introduce non-linear macro-financial dynamics in empirical macroeconomic models of the Canadian economy. Macroeconomic conditions are shown to deteriorate significantly when the Canadian financial stress index is above its 90th percentile.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibaut Duprey, 2020. "Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S3), pages 236-260, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:46:y:2020:i:s3:p:s236-s260
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2020-047
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Boissay, Frederic & Collard, Fabrice & Manea, Cristina & Shapiro, Adam, 2023. "Monetary Tightening, Inflation Drivers and Financial Stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 18694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Vladyslav Filatov, 2020. "A New Financial Stress Index for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 15-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Kabaca, Serdar & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "International transmission of quantitative easing policies: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Vladyslav Filatov, 2021. "A New Financial Stress Index for Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 251, pages 37-54.
    6. F. Boissay & F. Collard & C. Manea & A. Shapiro, 2025. "Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress During Supply- versus Demand-Driven Inflation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(2), pages 147-220, April.
    7. Bulusu, Narayan & Guérin, Pierre, 2019. "What drives interbank loans? Evidence from Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-444.
    8. Sha Zhu & Fujun Lai & Jie Deng & Qian Wang, 2021. "Do Mutual Funds’ Exposure to Financial Stress Predict Their Future Returns? Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    9. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    10. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, . "Using payments data to nowcast macroeconomic variables during the onset of Covid-19," Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures, Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures.
    11. Andrew Lee-Poy, 2018. "Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-34, Bank of Canada.
    12. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
    13. Lin Zhu & Jian He, 2024. "China financial stability and asymmetric implications for economic stability," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-29, February.
    14. Thibaut Duprey & Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities," Staff Analytical Notes 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    15. Duprey, Thibaut & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2025. "High-frequency effects of macroprudential policy announcements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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