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Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada

  • Maral Kichian
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    We propose a drifting-coefficient model to empirically study the effect of money on output growth in Canada and to examine the role of prevailing financial conditions for that relationship. We show that such a time-varying approach can be a useful way of modelling the impact of money on growth, and can partly reconcile the lack of concensus in the literature on the question of whether money affects growth. In addition, we find that credit conditions also play a role in that relationship. In particular, there is an additional negative short-run impact of money on growth when credit is not readily available, supporting the precautionary motive for holding money. Finally, money is found to have no effect on output growth in the long-run.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp2012-33.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 12-33.

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    Length: 44 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-33
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    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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    1. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing long run neutrality," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
    3. Vilasuso, Jon, 2000. " Trend Breaks in Money Growth and the Money-Output Relation in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 53-60, February.
    4. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2007. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," EIEF Working Papers Series 0807, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2007.
    5. Irina A. Telyukova & Randall Wright, 2006. "A Model of Money and Credit, with Application to the Credit Card Debt Puzzle," 2006 Meeting Papers 45, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, . "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Working Papers 94-3, Bank of Canada.
    7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Another Look at the Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 3856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tracy Chan & Ramdane Djoudad & Jackson Loi, 2006. "Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada," Working Papers 06-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. Karel Mertens, 2006. "How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/34, European University Institute.
    11. CĂ©line Gauthier & Fu Chun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
    12. Scott Hendry & Charleen Adam, 2001. "The M1 Vector-Error-Correction Model: some Extensions and Applications," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 145-175, July-Dece.
    13. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    14. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    15. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Jean Boivin & Michael T. Kiley & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2010. "How has the monetary transmission mechanism evolved over time?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2002. "Reconsidering the Role of Money for Output, Prices and Interest Rates," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 514, Stockholm School of Economics.
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