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Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada

Listed author(s):
  • Maral Kichian
Registered author(s):

    We propose a drifting-coefficient model to empirically study the effect of money on output growth in Canada and to examine the role of prevailing financial conditions for that relationship. We show that such a time-varying approach can be a useful way of modelling the impact of money on growth, and can partly reconcile the lack of concensus in the literature on the question of whether money affects growth. In addition, we find that credit conditions also play a role in that relationship. In particular, there is an additional negative short-run impact of money on growth when credit is not readily available, supporting the precautionary motive for holding money. Finally, money is found to have no effect on output growth in the long-run.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp2012-33.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Staff Working Papers with number 12-33.

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    Length: 44 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-33
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada

    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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    1. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1997. "More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 48-58, January.
    2. Céline Gauthier & Fu Chun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Staff Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
    3. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, 03.
    4. Karel Mertens, 2006. "How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/34, European University Institute.
    5. Morten O. Ravn & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2005. "Markov switching causality and the money-output relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 665-683.
    6. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
    7. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
    8. Friedman, Benjamin M. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1993. "Another look at the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 189-203.
    9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    10. Jean‐Thomas Bernard & Jean‐Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2012. "An identification‐robust test for time‐varying parameters in the dynamics of energy prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 603-624, 06.
    11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    13. Scott Hendry & Charleen Adam, 2001. "The M1 Vector-Error-Correction Model: some Extensions and Applications," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 145-175, July-Dece.
    14. Tracy Chan & Ramdane Djoudad & Jackson Loi, 2006. "Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada," Staff Working Papers 06-6, Bank of Canada.
    15. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    16. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, "undated". "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Staff Working Papers 94-3, Bank of Canada.
    17. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
    18. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Reconsidering the role of money for output, prices and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 419-430, April.
    19. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 143-146, March.
    20. Vilasuso, Jon, 2000. " Trend Breaks in Money Growth and the Money-Output Relation in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 53-60, February.
    21. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
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