Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Consumption Volatility in a Small Open Economy
Consumption volatility relative to output volatility is consistently higher in emerging economies than in developed economies. One natural explanation is that emerging economies are more likely to face borrowing constraints and, as a consequence, find it more difficult to use international capital markets to smooth consumption. The author investigates how much this mechanism alone can account for the relative consumption volatility differential between emerging and developed economies. His theoretical approach relies on a standard dynamic general-equilibrium model of a small open endowment economy that is subject to an endogenous borrowing constraint. The borrowing constraint makes the small economy exactly indifferent between two options: (i) repaying its external debt, or (ii) defaulting and having to live in financial autarky in the future. The model for the constrained economy is calibrated to match Brazilian data during the period 1980-2001. The author's findings suggest that the model is capable of accounting for more than half of the observed relative consumption volatility differential.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aiyagari, S. Rao & Gertler, Mark, 1991.
"Asset returns with transactions costs and uninsured individual risk,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 311-331, June.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Asset Returns with Transactions Cost and Uninsured Risk: A Stage III Exercise," NBER Working Papers 3481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Asset Returns with transaction costs and uninsured individual risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 648, David K. Levine.
- Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1994.
"The role of institutions in reputation models of sovereign debt,"
179, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1995. "The role of institutions in reputation models of sovereign debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-64, February.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999.
"Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, Herschel I. & Han, Taejoon, 1999.
"Sovereign debt and consumption smoothing,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 149-158, August.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cole, Harold L & Dow, James & English, William B, 1995.
"Default, Settlement, and Signalling: Lending Resumption in a Reputational Model of Sovereign Debt,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 365-85, May.
- Harold L. Cole & James Dow & William B. English, 1994. "Default, settlement, and signalling: lending resumption in a reputational model of sovereign debt," Staff Report 180, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006.
"Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 10731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates, and the current account," Working Papers 04-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998.
"Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
209, David K. Levine.
- Cristina Arellano, 2005. "Default Risk, the Real Exchange Rate and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.