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Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?

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  • Louis Morel

Abstract

Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis. In this paper, export-demand equations for a panel of 18 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are estimated in order to assess whether this sluggishness can be attributed to weak foreign demand. Over half of the slowdown in advanced-economy export growth since 2011 (relative to the pre-crisis trend) can be explained by weak global demand growth. More specifically, exports in advanced economies have been restrained by the weakness of global investment, a trade-intensive demand component and weak demand out of Europe, a region that accounts for about 40 per cent of the demand for advanced-economy exports. Weak foreign demand cannot explain all of the weakness in aggregate OECD exports since 2011, suggesting that other factors have also played a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Morel, 2015. "Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?," Discussion Papers 15-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:15-3
    DOI: 10.34989/sdp-2015-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aqib Aslam & Emine Boz & Eugenio Cerutti & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Petia Topalova, 2018. "The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of a Weak Recovery?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 440-479, September.
    2. Payal Jain & Sanjay Sehgal, 2019. "An examination of return and volatility spillovers between mature equity markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 180-210, January.
    3. Jarkko Jaaskela & Thomas Mathews, 2015. "Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-46, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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