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Fiscal Foresight, Forecast Revisions and the Effects of Government Spending in the Open Economy

  • Luca Gambetti

    ()

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, be- cause of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

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Paper provided by Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) in its series UFAE and IAE Working Papers with number 907.12.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 22 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:907.12
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  1. Kollmann, Robert, 1998. "US trade balance dynamics: the role of fiscal policy and productivity shocks and of financial market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 637-669, August.
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
  4. R. Barrell & R. Anderton & G.M. Caporale & J.W. in't Veld, 1993. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 145(1), pages 43-63, August.
  5. Qiang Dai & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with spending reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 7302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. A. S. Benetrix & P. R. Lane, 2013. "Fiscal Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 6-37, September.
  8. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "Fiscal Foresight and the Effects of Goverment Spending," CEPR Discussion Papers 7840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  12. Roberto perotti, 2011. "Expectations and Fiscal Policy: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 429, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  13. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages F4-F32, February.
  14. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, 05.
  15. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 414-423, 04-05.
  16. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
  17. Elmendorf, D.W., 1993. "Actual Budget Deficit Expectations and Interest Rates," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1639, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  18. repec:sae:niesru:v:145:y::i:1:p:43-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  20. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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