IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2606.12872.html

Non-Spanning Identification of Scheduled Event Risk in Option Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Tenghan Zhong

Abstract

Short-dated index options make scheduled macro-announcement risk visible in market prices, but visibility does not imply identification: a flexible no-event surface fitted to event-spanning quotes can absorb event premia, while a jump calibrated without event-spanning quotes is unidentified. To separate the continuous surface from the scheduled jump, we model Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases, and nonfarm payroll (NFP) reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing and propose a non-spanning identification protocol. Non-spanning expiries identify the no-event volatility surface, event-spanning training quotes calibrate the scheduled jump, and held-out event-spanning quotes are used only for pricing evaluation. On PM-settled S\&P 500 index (SPX) options from May 2022 to August 2025, Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps improve held-out event-spanning pricing, with the clearest gains in robust median pricing errors and in event-volatility option combinations (straddles and strangles) rather than directional risk reversals. A contaminated-surface stress test confirms the identification concern: allowing event-spanning training quotes into the no-event surface fit produces strong held-out performance by absorbing event premia rather than identifying scheduled jump risk. An amortized mixture density network (MDN) benchmark shows limited cross-event transfer: pure leave-one-event-out amortization reduces implied-volatility errors but not mean dollar or mean spread-normalized pricing errors, while the scale-calibrated variant restores Gaussian-level performance yet remains below event-specific mixture calibration. Scheduled-jump identification is strongest for CPI and FOMC and weaker for NFP.

Suggested Citation

  • Tenghan Zhong, 2026. "Non-Spanning Identification of Scheduled Event Risk in Option Pricing," Papers 2606.12872, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.12872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.12872
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2017. "Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1335-1386, June.
    2. Christa Cuchiero & Wahid Khosrawi & Josef Teichmann, 2020. "A generative adversarial network approach to calibration of local stochastic volatility models," Papers 2005.02505, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Nicola Fusari & Viktor Todorov, 2015. "Parametric Inference and Dynamic State Recovery From Option Panels," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1081-1145, May.
    4. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    5. Shuaiqiang Liu & Cornelis W. Oosterlee & Sander M. Bohte, 2019. "Pricing Options and Computing Implied Volatilities using Neural Networks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2025. "Which Days Matter for Global Equity Markets? Using Options to Price Events in the Global Calendar," FEDS Notes 2025-10-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jim Gatheral & Antoine Jacquier, 2014. "Arbitrage-free SVI volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 59-71, January.
    8. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    9. Christa Cuchiero & Wahid Khosrawi & Josef Teichmann, 2020. "A Generative Adversarial Network Approach to Calibration of Local Stochastic Volatility Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-31, September.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Lykourgos Alexiou & Amit Goyal & Alexandros Kostakis & Leonidas Rompolis, 2025. "Pricing event risk: evidence from concave implied volatility curves," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 963-1007.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2059-2106 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Blanka Horvath & Aitor Muguruza & Mehdi Tomas, 2021. "Deep learning volatility: a deep neural network perspective on pricing and calibration in (rough) volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 11-27, January.
    14. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Serena Della Corte & Laurens Van Mieghem & Antonis Papapantoleon & Jonas Papazoglou-Hennig, 2023. "Machine learning for option pricing: an empirical investigation of network architectures," Papers 2307.07657, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    2. Jiwook Yoo, 2025. "Joint calibration of the volatility surface and variance term structure," Papers 2509.08096, arXiv.org.
    3. Samuel N. Cohen & Christoph Reisinger & Sheng Wang, 2021. "Arbitrage-free neural-SDE market models," Papers 2105.11053, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    4. Jimin Lin, 2026. "Shallow Representation of Option Implied Information," Papers 2603.17151, arXiv.org.
    5. Baule, Rainer & Shkel, David, 2021. "Model risk and model choice in the case of barrier options and bonus certificates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Roman V. Ivanov, 2023. "On the Stochastic Volatility in the Generalized Black-Scholes-Merton Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, June.
    7. S Sapna & Biju R. Mohan, 2026. "A Synergetic Approach to Ethereum Option Valuation Using XGBoost and Soft Reordering 1D Convolutional Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(4), pages 2663-2696, April.
    8. Ballotta, Laura & Rayée, Grégory, 2022. "Smiles & smirks: Volatility and leverage by jumps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1145-1161.
    9. Pablo Rodriguez Manzi, 2026. "Volatility Surface Reconstruction using Deep Learning under No-Arbitrage Constraints," Papers 2605.24031, arXiv.org.
    10. Chen, Hui & Didisheim, Antoine & Scheidegger, Simon, 2026. "Deep surrogates for finance: With an application to option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    11. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    12. Miquel Noguer I Alonso, 2026. "Derivative-Informed Operator Learning for Finance: On-the-Fly Greeks, Surfaces, Hedging, and Control," Papers 2606.05900, arXiv.org.
    13. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2014. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46.
    14. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
    15. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steven & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Option Anomalies and the Pricing Kernel," Working Papers 11-17, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    16. Boswijk, H. Peter & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Vladimirov, Evgenii, 2024. "Estimating option pricing models using a characteristic function-based linear state space representation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
    17. Diego Amaya & Jean-François Bégin & Geneviève Gauthier, 2022. "The Informational Content of High-Frequency Option Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2166-2201, March.
    18. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    19. Hyun-Gyoon Kim & Hyeongmi Kim & Jeonggyu Huh, 2025. "Considering Appropriate Input Features of Neural Network to Calibrate Option Pricing Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(1), pages 77-104, July.
    20. Guo, Jingjun & Kang, Weiyi & Wang, Yubing, 2024. "Multi-perspective option price forecasting combining parametric and non-parametric pricing models with a new dynamic ensemble framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.12872. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.