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Seasonality in Mixed Causal-Noncausal Processes

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  • Tom'as del Barrio Castro
  • Alain Hecq
  • Sean Telg

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of complex and negative roots in mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive (MAR) models. Using partial fraction decompositions, we show that seasonal roots can always be isolated in the moving average representation of purely causal and noncausal AR models. We find that this result extends to the MAR model, which means that no new joint seasonal effects can be generated despite the multiplicative structure of the causal and noncausal polynomials. This results has important consequences for the MAR model selection procedure and these are extensively studied in a Monte Carlo simulation study. An empirical application on COVID-19 and soybean data illustrates the main findings of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom'as del Barrio Castro & Alain Hecq & Sean Telg, 2026. "Seasonality in Mixed Causal-Noncausal Processes," Papers 2604.07040, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Tomás del Barrio Castro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2019. "Temporal Aggregation of Seasonally Near‐Integrated Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 872-886, November.
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    13. Alain Hecq & Daniel Velásquez-Gaviria, 2025. "Spectral estimation for mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 939-962, August.
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    20. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2023. "Generalized Covariance Estimator," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 1315-1327, October.
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