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A Joint Analysis of Sensitivity to Anticipation and Parallel Trends Violations

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  • Gianna Fenaroli

Abstract

Two key identifying assumptions used to justify difference-in-differences are parallel trends and no anticipation, yet both may fail in practice. I propose a class of assumptions on anticipation and derive closed-form, sharp bounds on the average treatment effect on the treated while simultaneously relaxing parallel trends. Deviations from both assumptions are jointly disciplined using observed pre-trends. When some anticipation is imposed, the identified set under joint deviations can be shorter than under parallel trends violations alone. These bounds inform a sensitivity analysis assessing the robustness of qualitative conclusions to anticipation and parallel trends violations. I illustrate with an empirical application.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianna Fenaroli, 2026. "A Joint Analysis of Sensitivity to Anticipation and Parallel Trends Violations," Papers 2603.00868, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.00868
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    References listed on IDEAS

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