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The Surprising Irrelevance of Total-Value-Locked on Cryptocurrency Returns

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  • Matt Brigida

Abstract

A common assumption in cryptocurrency markets is a positive relationship between total-value-locked (TVL) and cryptocurrency returns. To test this hypothesis we examine whether the returns of TVL-sorted portfolios can be explained by common cryptocurrency factors. We find evidence that portfolios formed on TVL exhibit returns that are linear functions of aggregate crypto market returns, that is they can be replicated with appropriate weights on the crypto market portfolio. Thus, strategies based on TVL can be priced with standard asset pricing tools. This result holds true both for total TVL and a simple TVL measure that removes a number of ways TVL may be overstated.

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  • Matt Brigida, 2025. "The Surprising Irrelevance of Total-Value-Locked on Cryptocurrency Returns," Papers 2506.03287, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Konstantinos Pantelidis & Ioannis Karakostas, 2024. "Evaluating the Significance of the Total Value Locked to Market Capitalization Ratio," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(11), pages 1-41, November.
    2. Pietro Saggese & Michael Fröwis & Stefan Kitzler & Bernhard Haslhofer & Raphael Auer, 2025. "Towards verifiability of total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance," BIS Working Papers 1268, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    5. Grande, Mar & Borondo, Javier, 2025. "Trust as a driver in the DeFi market: Leveraging TVL/MCAP bands as confidence indicators to anticipate price movements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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