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Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on Wages: Empirical Evidence and Underlying Mechanisms

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  • Bo Wu

Abstract

This study investigates the causal relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and wage levels, aiming to provide a quantified assessment of the impact. While no significant evidence is found for long-term effects, the analysis reveals a statistically significant positive influence on wages in the short term, particularly within a one-year horizon. Contrary to common expectations, the results suggest that COVID-19 may have led to short-run wage increases. Several potential mechanisms are proposed to explain this counterintuitive outcome. The findings remain robust when controlling for other macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, considered here as a proxy for aggregate demand. The paper also addresses issues of external validity in the concluding section.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Wu, 2025. "Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on Wages: Empirical Evidence and Underlying Mechanisms," Papers 2504.10554, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.10554
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