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Trading Graph Neural Network

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  • Xian Wu

Abstract

This paper proposes a new algorithm -- Trading Graph Neural Network (TGNN) that can structurally estimate the impact of asset features, dealer features and relationship features on asset prices in trading networks. It combines the strength of the traditional simulated method of moments (SMM) and recent machine learning techniques -- Graph Neural Network (GNN). It outperforms existing reduced-form methods with network centrality measures in prediction accuracy. The method can be used on networks with any structure, allowing for heterogeneity among both traders and assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xian Wu, 2025. "Trading Graph Neural Network," Papers 2504.07923, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.07923
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Babus & Péter Kondor, 2018. "Trading and Information Diffusion in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1727-1769, September.
    2. Semyon Malamud & Marzena Rostek, 2017. "Decentralized Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3320-3362, November.
    3. Yong Cai, 2022. "Linear Regression with Centrality Measures," Papers 2210.10024, arXiv.org.
    4. Di Maggio, Marco & Kermani, Amir & Song, Zhaogang, 2017. "The value of trading relations in turbulent times," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 266-284.
    5. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    6. Burton Hollifield & Artem Neklyudov & Chester Spatt, 2017. "Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Networks, and the Pricing of Securitizations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3048-3085.
    7. Cohen, Assa & Kargar, Mahyar & Lester, Benjamin & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2024. "Inventory, market making, and liquidity in OTC markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    8. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-1057, September.
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