IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2502.10101.html

What are Asset Price Bubbles? A Survey on Definitions of Financial Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Heinrich Baumann
  • Anja Janischewski

Abstract

Financial bubbles and crashes have repeatedly caused economic turmoil notably but not only during the 2008 financial crisis. However, both in the popular press as well as scientific publications, the meaning of bubble is sometimes unspecified. Due to the multitude of bubble definitions, we conduct a systematic review with the following questions: What definitions of asset price bubbles exist in the literature? Which definitions are used in which disciplines and how frequently? We develop a system of definition categories and categorize a total of 122 papers from eleven research areas. Our results show that although one definition is indeed prevalent in the literature, the overall definition landscape is not uniform. Next to the mostly used definition as deviation from a present value of expected future cash flows, we identify several other definitions, which rely on price properties or other specifications of a fundamental value. This research contributes by shedding light on the possible variations in which bubbles are defined and operationalized.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Heinrich Baumann & Anja Janischewski, 2025. "What are Asset Price Bubbles? A Survey on Definitions of Financial Bubbles," Papers 2502.10101, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.10101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.10101
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    2. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "Economic theory and asset bubbles," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 31(Q III), pages 44-59.
    3. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    4. Robert A. Jarrow, 2021. "Asset Price Bubbles," Springer Finance, in: Continuous-Time Asset Pricing Theory, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 75-90, Springer.
    5. Loewenstein, Mark & Willard, Gregory A., 2000. "Rational Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Bubbles in Continuous Trading Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 17-58, March.
    6. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
    7. Robert A. Jarrow, 2010. "On Model Testing in Financial Economics," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 277-285, May.
    8. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    9. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jing, 2015. "Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 377-387.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baumann, Michael Heinrich & Janischewski, Anja, 2025. "What are asset price bubbles? A survey on definitions of financial bubbles," MPRA Paper 123676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2021. "Driven by fundamentals or exploded by emotions: Detecting bubbles in oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Anja Janischewski & Michael Heinrich Baumann, 2025. "What are Asset Price Bubbles? A Survey on Definitions of Financial Bubbles," Chemnitz Economic Papers 065, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    4. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.
    5. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting & He, Ling-Yun & Ripple, Ronald, 2019. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil market: Can the regime switching GARCH model beat the single-regime GARCH models?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 302-317.
    7. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    9. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi Wei & Khurshid, Adnan, 2022. "Do booms and busts identify bubbles in energy prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    11. El Montasser, Ghassen & Malek Belhoula, Mohamed & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2023. "Co-explosivity versus leading effects: Evidence from crude oil and agricultural commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "Equity Premium and Dividend Yield regressions: A lot of noise, little information, confusing results," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt955135m1, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    13. Christos Floros & Georgios Galyfianakis, 2020. "Bubbles in Crude Oil and Commodity Energy Index: New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Lambert Jerman, 2015. "Les Enjeux De L'Application Des Normes Ias-Ifrs : L'Etude Des Preparateurs Des Comptes, Une Perspective De Recherche Encore Inexploree," Post-Print hal-01188736, HAL.
    15. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Detection of bubbles in WTI, brent, and Dubai oil prices: A novel double recursive algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Francesca Biagini & Thomas Reitsam, 2019. "Asset Price Bubbles in market models with proportional transaction costs," Papers 1911.10149, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    17. Martin HERDEGEN & Martin SCHWEIZER, 2015. "Economics-Based Financial Bubbles (and Why They Imply Strict Local Martingales)," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-05, Swiss Finance Institute.
    18. Andrei Afilipoaei & Gustavo Carrero, 2023. "A Mathematical Model of Financial Bubbles: A Behavioral Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, September.
    19. Fu, Fangjian & Lin, Leming & Officer, Micah S., 2013. "Acquisitions driven by stock overvaluation: Are they good deals?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 24-39.
    20. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.10101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.