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Commodity Booms, Local State Capacity, and Development

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  • Dafne Murillo
  • Sebastian Sardon

Abstract

State capacity may shape whether natural resources generate prosperity, as it determines if windfalls are effectively turned into useful projects or wasted. We test this hypothesis studying the 2004-2011 mining boom in Peru, where mines' profits are redistributed as windfall transfers to local governments. Our empirical strategy combines geological data with the central government's mining windfalls allocation formula to identify the windfalls' effects on household incomes and other measures of economic development. Proxying local state capacity with the ability to tax and relying on a triple difference strategy we uncover significant variation in treatment response, with positive effects of windfalls limited to high state capacity localities. We find suggestive evidence that only localities with high state capacity succeed at transforming windfalls into infrastructure stocks, which in turns contributes to structural transformation and market integration. Lastly, social unrest increases in low state capacity localities that receive windfalls but fail to perceive their benefits. Our findings underscore important complementarities between investments in extractive industries and in state capacity.

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  • Dafne Murillo & Sebastian Sardon, 2024. "Commodity Booms, Local State Capacity, and Development," Papers 2411.09586, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2411.09586
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Caselli & Guy Michaels, 2013. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 208-238, January.
    2. Stanislao Maldonado & Martin Ardanaz, 2023. "Natural resource windfalls and efficiency in local government expenditure: Evidence from Peru," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 28-64, March.
    3. Ragnar Torvik, 2009. "Why do some resource-abundant countries succeed while others do not?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 241-256, Summer.
    4. Gharad Bryan & Melanie Morten, 2019. "The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2229-2268.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonella Bancalari & Juan Pablo Rud, 2025. "Resource windfalls, Public Expenditures, and Local Economies," Working Papers 348, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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