IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2310.05110.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of the pandemic of Covid-19 on child poverty in North Macedonia: Simulation-based estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Marjan Petreski

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to estimate the expected effects of the pandemic of Covid-19 for child poverty in North Macedonia. We rely on MK-MOD Tax & Benefit Microsimulation Model for North Macedonia based on the Survey on Income and Living Conditions 2019. The simulation takes into account the development of income, as per the observed developments in the first three quarters of 2020, derived from the Labor Force Survey, which incorporates the raw effect of the pandemic and the government response. In North Macedonia, almost no government measure directly aimed the income of children, however, three key and largest measures addressed household income: the wage subsidy of 14.500 MKD per worker in the hardest hit companies, relaxation of the criteria for obtaining the guaranteed minimum income, and one-off support to vulnerable groups of the population in two occasions. Results suggest that the relative child poverty rate is estimated to increase from 27.8 percent before the pandemic to 32.4 percent during the pandemic. This increase puts additional 19,000 children below the relative poverty threshold. Results further suggest that absolute poverty is likely to reduce primarily because of the automatic stabilizers in the case of social assistance and because of the one-time cash assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marjan Petreski, 2023. "The impact of the pandemic of Covid-19 on child poverty in North Macedonia: Simulation-based estimates," Papers 2310.05110, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.05110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.05110
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    2. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski, 2018. "Analysis of the public spending on education and on social protection of children in the country," Finance Think Policy Studies 2018-12/20, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    3. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Ana Tomovska Misoska & Maja Parnardzieva Zmejkova & Vladimir Dimkovski & Maja Gerovska Mitev & Nicholas Morgan, 2020. "The Social and Economic Effects of Covid-19 on Children in North Macedonia: Rapid Analysis and Policy Proposals," Finance Think Policy Studies 2020-07/30, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas R. Kostøl & Andreas S. Myhre, 2021. "Labor Supply Responses to Learning the Tax and Benefit Schedule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3733-3766, November.
    2. Vincent Dekker & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "A Comparison of Different Data-driven Procedures to Determine the Bunching Window," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(2), pages 262-293, March.
    3. Reyes, Germán, 2024. "Coarse Wage-Setting and Behavioral Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 17039, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Lequien, Matthieu & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2017. "Tax simplicity and heterogeneous learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Paul E. Carrillo & M. Shahe Emran & Anita Rivadeneira, 2011. "Do Cheaters Bunch Together? Profit Taxes, Withholding Rates and Tax Evasion," Working Papers 2011-03, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Junyi Zhu, 2014. "Bracket Creep Revisited - with and without r > g: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 23(3), pages 106-158, November.
    7. Niels Johannesen & Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier, 2016. "Are less developed countries more exposed to multinational tax avoidance? Method and evidence from micro-data," WIDER Working Paper Series 010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Simon Halphen Boserup & Wojciech Kopczuk & Claus Thustrup Kreiner, 2018. "Born with a Silver Spoon? Danish Evidence on Wealth Inequality in Childhood," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(612), pages 514-544, July.
    9. Annette Alstadsæter & Wojciech Kopczuk & Kjetil Telle, 2019. "Social networks and tax avoidance: evidence from a well-defined Norwegian tax shelter," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(6), pages 1291-1328, December.
    10. Støstad, Morten Nyborg & Cowell, Frank, 2024. "Inequality as an externality: Consequences for tax design," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    11. Estefanía Galván, 2022. "Gender Identity and Quality of Employment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 409-436, April.
    12. Christian A. L. Hilber & Teemu Lyytikäinen, 2012. "The Effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax on Household Mobility," SERC Discussion Papers 0115, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Fuente, David & Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Kimuyu, Peter & Mwaura, Mbutu & Whittington, Dale, 2017. "Assessing the Performance of Alternative Water and Sanitation Tariffs: The Case of Nairobi, Kenya," EfD Discussion Paper 17-21, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    14. Kalle Hirvonen & Giulia Mascagni & Keetie Roelen, 2018. "Linking taxation and social protection: Evidence on redistribution and poverty reduction in Ethiopia," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 3-24, January.
    15. Gunter, Samara, 2013. "State Earned Income Tax Credits and Participation in Regular and Informal Work," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(1), pages 33-62, March.
    16. Bruce, Donald & Gurley-Calvez, Tami J. & Norwood, Alex, 2020. "Entrepreneurship as Trust," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 16(5), pages 393-443, April.
    17. R. Lardeux, 2018. "Who Understands The French Income Tax? Bunching Where Tax Liabilities Start," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2018-04, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    18. David Card & David S. Lee & Zhuan Pei & Andrea Weber, 2015. "Inference on Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2453-2483, November.
    19. Jeffrey L. Coles & Elena Patel & Nathan Seegert & Matthew Smith, 2022. "How Do Firms Respond to Corporate Taxes?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 965-1006, June.
    20. Beffy, Magali & Blundell, Richard & Bozio, Antoine & Laroque, Guy & Tô, Maxime, 2019. "Labour supply and taxation with restricted choices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 16-46.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.05110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.