IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2309.00635.html

Theoretical foundation for the Pareto distribution of international trade strength and introduction of an equation for international trade forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Mikrajuddin Abdullah

Abstract

I propose a new terminology, international trade strength, which is defined as the ratio of a country's total international trade to its GDP. This parameter represents a country's ability to generate international trade by utilizing its GDP. This figure is equivalent to GDP per capita, which represents a country's ability to use its population to generate GDP. Trade strength varies by country. The intriguing question is, what distribution function does the trade strength fulfill? In this paper, a theoretical foundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate of change of trade strength were developed. These two quantities were found to satisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed using data from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) and the World Bank by comparing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to five types of distribution functions (exponential, lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). I also discovered that the fitting Pareto power parameter is fairly close to the theoretical parameter. In addition, a formula for forecasting a country's total international trade in the following years was also developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikrajuddin Abdullah, 2023. "Theoretical foundation for the Pareto distribution of international trade strength and introduction of an equation for international trade forecasting," Papers 2309.00635, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2309.00635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.00635
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiiu Paas, 2000. "The gravity approach for modeling international trade patterns for economies in transition," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(4), pages 633-648, November.
    2. William Martin & Cong S. Pham, 2020. "Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(26), pages 2766-2779, May.
    3. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2021. "New nonlinear estimators of the gravity equation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 192-202.
    4. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
    5. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
    6. Peter Nijkamp & Waldemar Ratajczak, 2021. "Gravitational Analysis in Regional Science and Spatial Economics: A Vector Gradient Approach to Trade," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(3-4), pages 400-431, May.
    7. Bryn Battersby & Robert Ewing, 2005. "International Trade Performance: The Gravity of Australia's Remoteness," Treasury Working Papers 2005-03, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Jun 2005.
    8. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    9. Mikrajuddin Abdullah, 2023. "A New Approach to Overcoming Zero Trade in Gravity Models to Avoid Indefinite Values in Linear Logarithmic Equations and Parameter Verification Using Machine Learning," Papers 2308.06303, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikrajuddin Abdullah, 2023. "A New Approach to Overcoming Zero Trade in Gravity Models to Avoid Indefinite Values in Linear Logarithmic Equations and Parameter Verification Using Machine Learning," Papers 2308.06303, arXiv.org.
    2. Irena Mikolajun & Richard Paap & Jean-Marie Viaene & Olga Zelenko, 2016. "Trade Policy Options of Ukraine: East or West," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-057/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Sosa Andrés, Maximiliano & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Busse, Matthias, 2013. "What drives FDI from non-traditional sources? A comparative analysis of the determinants of bilateral FDI flows," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7, pages 1-53.
    5. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2015. "European enlargement policy, technological capabilities and sectoral export dynamics," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 25-69, February.
    6. Andrew J. Cassey, 2010. "Analyzing the export flow from Texas to Mexico," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Oct.
    7. Claudio Candia Campano & Medardo Aguirre Gonz�lez & Lilliam Ant�n L�pez & Javier Beltr�n Valdebenito, 2018. "A gravity model of trade for Nicaraguan agricultural exports," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 391-428.
    8. Martin, Will, 2020. "Making Gravity Great Again," 2020: Economic Implications of COVID-19, December 14-15, Virtual Platform 339376, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    9. Jagdambe, Subhash & Kannan, Elumalai, 2020. "Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    10. Tamini, Lota D. & Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Abbassi, Abdessalem, 2016. "Trade performance and potential of North African countries: An application of a stochastic frontier gravity model," AGRODEP working papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. D. V. Pahan Prasada, 2013. "Domestic versus Multilateral Institutions in Bilateral Trade: A Comparative Gravity Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 127-142, March.
    12. Paola Cardamone, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    13. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    14. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2012. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 88(2), pages 137-163, April.
    15. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    16. Sorgho, Zakaria, 2014. "RTAs’ Proliferation and Trade-diversion effects: Evidence of the “Spaghetti Bowl” Phenomenon," MPRA Paper 60503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sato, Misato & Dechezleprêtre, Antoine, 2015. "Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 130-141.
    18. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Felix Groba, 2014. "Determinants of trade with solar energy technology components: evidence on the porter hypothesis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 503-526, February.
    20. Ghulam Shabbir & Amjad Naveed & Muhammad Ali Khan & Shabib Haider Syed, 2022. "Does Peace Promote Bilateral Trade Flows? An Economic Analysis of Panel Data in Asian Perspective," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(1), pages 143-158, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2309.00635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.