IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2209.08825.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

SEC Form 13F-HR: Statistical investigation of trading imbalances and profitability analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Deborah Miori
  • Mihai Cucuringu

Abstract

US Institutions with more than $100 million assets under management must disclose part of their long positions into the SEC Form 13F-HR on a quarterly basis. We consider the number of variations in holdings between consecutive reporting periods, and compute imbalances in buying versus selling behaviour for the assets under consideration. A significant opportunity for profit arises if an external investor is willing to trade contrarian to the 13F filings imbalances. Indeed, imbalances capture the amount of information already consumed in the market and the related trades tend to be inflated by crowding and herding. Betting on a relatively short-term movement of prices against the sign of imbalances results in a profitable strategy especially when using a time horizon between 21 and 42 trading days (corresponding to 1-2 calendar months) after each financial quarter ends.

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Miori & Mihai Cucuringu, 2022. "SEC Form 13F-HR: Statistical investigation of trading imbalances and profitability analysis," Papers 2209.08825, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.08825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.08825
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Monica Billio & Loriana Pelizzon, 2014. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk: hedge funds, banks, insurance companies," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 6, pages 81-91, June.
    2. Caccioli, Fabio & Shrestha, Munik & Moore, Cristopher & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2014. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 233-245.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    4. Ledoit, Oliver & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 850-859, December.
    5. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2015. "Institutional Investors, Annual Reports, Textual Analysis and Stock Returns: Evidence from SEC EDGAR 10-K and 13-F Forms," MPRA Paper 65875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Working Papers 16223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Russ Wermers & Tong Yao & Jane Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3490-3529.
    8. Daniel Barth & R. Jay Kahn, 2021. "Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect," Working Papers 21-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    9. James B. Thomson, 2009. "On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    10. Guo Weilong & Minca Andreea & Wang Li, 2016. "The topology of overlapping portfolio networks," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(3-4), pages 139-155, December.
    11. Rama Cont & Mihai Cucuringu & Chao Zhang, 2021. "Cross-Impact of Order Flow Imbalance in Equity Markets," Papers 2112.13213, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mahir Binici & Bulent Koksal & Cuneyt Orman, 2013. "Stock Return Co-movement and Systemic Risk in the Turkish Banking System," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(Special I), pages 41-63.
    2. Barucca, Paolo & Mahmood, Tahir & Silvestri, Laura, 2021. "Common asset holdings and systemic vulnerability across multiple types of financial institution," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2022. "Simulating fire sales in a system of banks and asset managers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Mathias S. Kruttli & Phillip J. Monin & Lubomir Petrasek & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2021. "Hedge Fund Treasury Trading and Funding Fragility: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Fricke, Christoph & Fricke, Daniel, 2021. "Vulnerable asset management? The case of mutual funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Pichler, Anton & Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Systemic risk-efficient asset allocations: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael & Weistroffer, Christian, 2023. "Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 354-380.
    9. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    10. Raffestin, Louis, 2014. "Diversification and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 85-106.
    11. Malavasi, Matteo & Ortobelli Lozza, Sergio & Trück, Stefan, 2021. "Second order of stochastic dominance efficiency vs mean variance efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1192-1206.
    12. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin & Sandra Paterlini, 2018. "Asset allocation strategies based on penalized quantile regression," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, January.
    13. Candelon, B. & Hurlin, C. & Tokpavi, S., 2012. "Sampling error and double shrinkage estimation of minimum variance portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 511-527.
    14. Alex Huang, 2013. "Value at risk estimation by quantile regression and kernel estimator," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 225-251, August.
    15. Feinstein, Zachary, 2020. "Capital regulation under price impacts and dynamic financial contagion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 449-463.
    16. Bichuch, Maxim & Feinstein, Zachary, 2022. "A repo model of fire sales with VWAP and LOB pricing mechanisms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 353-367.
    17. Andrea Flori & Fabrizio Lillo & Fabio Pammolli & Alessandro Spelta, 2021. "Better to stay apart: asset commonality, bipartite network centrality, and investment strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 177-213, April.
    18. Bua, Giovanna & Dunne, Peter G. & Sorbo, Jacopo, 2019. "Money Market Funds and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Nathan Lassance & Victor DeMiguel & Frédéric Vrins, 2022. "Optimal Portfolio Diversification via Independent Component Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 55-72, January.
    20. Liusha Yang & Romain Couillet & Matthew R. McKay, 2015. "A Robust Statistics Approach to Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization," Papers 1503.08013, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.08825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.