IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2010.05462.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation, ECB and short-term interest rates: A new model, with calibration to market data

Author

Listed:
  • F. Antonacci
  • C. Costantini
  • F. D'Ippoliti
  • M. Papi

Abstract

We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for a contingent claim and show that it has a unique solution. The contingent claim payoff may depend on all three economic factors of the model and the discount factor is allowed to include inflation. Taking as a benchmark the model of Ho, H.W., Huang, H.H. and Yildirim, Y., Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium, (European Journal of Operational Researc, 2014), we show that our model performs better on market data from 2008 to 2015. Our model is not an affine model. Although in some special cases the solution of the valuation equation might admit a closed form, in general it has to be solved numerically. This can be done efficiently by the algorithm that we provide. Our model uses many fewer parameters than the benchmark model, which partly compensates the higher complexity of the numerical procedure and also suggests that our model describes the behaviour of the economic factors more closely.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Antonacci & C. Costantini & F. D'Ippoliti & M. Papi, 2020. "Inflation, ECB and short-term interest rates: A new model, with calibration to market data," Papers 2010.05462, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2010.05462
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.05462
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    2. Joseph Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2012. "Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1588-1629.
    3. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    4. Cristina Costantini & Marco Papi & Fernanda D’Ippoliti, 2012. "Singular risk-neutral valuation equations," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 249-274, April.
    5. Singor, Stefan N. & Grzelak, Lech A. & van Bragt, David D.B. & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2013. "Pricing inflation products with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 286-299.
    6. Robert Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 16, pages 349-370, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Stefan Waldenberger, 2017. "The affine inflation market models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 281-301, July.
    8. Fabio Mercurio, 2005. "Pricing inflation-indexed derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 289-302.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Flavia Antonacci & Cristina Costantini & Marco Papi, 2021. "Short-Term Interest Rate Estimation by Filtering in a Model Linking Inflation, the Central Bank and Short-Term Interest Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flavia Antonacci & Cristina Costantini & Marco Papi, 2021. "Short-Term Interest Rate Estimation by Filtering in a Model Linking Inflation, the Central Bank and Short-Term Interest Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    3. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    4. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    5. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    6. Henrik Dam & Andrea Macrina & David Skovmand & David Sloth, 2018. "Rational Models for Inflation-Linked Derivatives," Papers 1801.08804, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    7. Marcello Pericoli, 2019. "An assessment of recent trends in market-based expected iflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 542, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Stefan Waldenberger, 2015. "The affine inflation market models," Papers 1503.04979, arXiv.org.
    9. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    10. Hinnerich, Mia, 2008. "Inflation-indexed swaps and swaptions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2293-2306, November.
    11. Orcan Ogetbil & Bernhard Hientzsch, 2024. "Inflation Models with Correlation and Skew," Papers 2405.05101, arXiv.org.
    12. Auckenthaler, Julia & Kupfer, Alexander & Sendlhofer, Rupert, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 139-154.
    13. Rodrigo Barria & Gabor Pinter, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
    14. M. Martin Boyer & Lars Stentoft, 2017. "Yes We Can (Price Derivatives on Survivor Indices)," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 37-62, March.
    15. Roussellet, Guillaume, 2025. "The term structure of macroeconomic risks at the effective lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    16. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Laura Wilcox, 2024. "Tale About Inflation Tails," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Marc Henrard, 2005. "Inflation bond option pricing in Jarrow-Yildirim model," Finance 0510027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    19. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Cristiano Baldassari & Massimiliano Meschini & Paola Nascenzi, 2024. "Stochastic Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: a Simple Diffusion Model," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(4), pages 1-2.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2010.05462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.