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Listening to Chaotic Whispers: A Deep Learning Framework for News-oriented Stock Trend Prediction

Author

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  • Ziniu Hu
  • Weiqing Liu
  • Jiang Bian
  • Xuanzhe Liu
  • Tie-Yan Liu

Abstract

Stock trend prediction plays a critical role in seeking maximized profit from stock investment. However, precise trend prediction is very difficult since the highly volatile and non-stationary nature of stock market. Exploding information on Internet together with advancing development of natural language processing and text mining techniques have enable investors to unveil market trends and volatility from online content. Unfortunately, the quality, trustworthiness and comprehensiveness of online content related to stock market varies drastically, and a large portion consists of the low-quality news, comments, or even rumors. To address this challenge, we imitate the learning process of human beings facing such chaotic online news, driven by three principles: sequential content dependency, diverse influence, and effective and efficient learning. In this paper, to capture the first two principles, we designed a Hybrid Attention Networks to predict the stock trend based on the sequence of recent related news. Moreover, we apply the self-paced learning mechanism to imitate the third principle. Extensive experiments on real-world stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziniu Hu & Weiqing Liu & Jiang Bian & Xuanzhe Liu & Tie-Yan Liu, 2017. "Listening to Chaotic Whispers: A Deep Learning Framework for News-oriented Stock Trend Prediction," Papers 1712.02136, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1712.02136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    2. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    3. Jochen Gorski & Frank Pfeuffer & Kathrin Klamroth, 2007. "Biconvex sets and optimization with biconvex functions: a survey and extensions," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 66(3), pages 373-407, December.
    4. Rajagopal, 2015. "Market Trend Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Butterfly Effect in Competitive Markets, chapter 4, pages 95-118, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Guo & Saizhuo Wang & Lionel M. Ni & Heung-Yeung Shum, 2022. "Quant 4.0: Engineering Quantitative Investment with Automated, Explainable and Knowledge-driven Artificial Intelligence," Papers 2301.04020, arXiv.org.
    2. Farnoush Ronaghi & Mohammad Salimibeni & Farnoosh Naderkhani & Arash Mohammadi, 2021. "COVID19-HPSMP: COVID-19 Adopted Hybrid and Parallel Deep Information Fusion Framework for Stock Price Movement Prediction," Papers 2101.02287, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.

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