IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1605.06700.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of the financial crisis on the long-range memory of European corporate bond and stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lisana B. Martinez
  • M. Belen Guercio
  • Aurelio F. Bariviera
  • Antonio Terce~no

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in corporate bond and stock indices of six European Union countries from July 1998 to February 2015. We compute the Hurst exponent by means of the DFA method and using a sliding window in order to measure long range dependence. We detect that Hurst exponents behave differently in the stock and bond markets, being smoother in the stock indices than in the bond indices. We verify that the level of informational efficiency is time-varying. Moreover we find an asymmetric impact of the 2008 financial crisis in the fixed income and the stock markets, affecting the former but not the latter. Similar results are obtained using the R/S method.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisana B. Martinez & M. Belen Guercio & Aurelio F. Bariviera & Antonio Terce~no, 2016. "The impact of the financial crisis on the long-range memory of European corporate bond and stock markets," Papers 1605.06700, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1605.06700
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1605.06700
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jussi Tolvi, 2003. "Long memory and outliers in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 495-502.
    2. Chin Wen Cheong, 2010. "Estimating the Hurst parameter in financial time series via heuristic approaches," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-214.
    3. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    4. L. Ureche-Rangau & Q. de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets : the chinese stock market," Post-Print hal-00581618, HAL.
    5. L. Zunino & B. M. Tabak & D. G. Pérez & M. Garavaglia & O. A. Rosso, 2007. "Inefficiency in Latin-American market indices," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 111-121, November.
    6. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2007. "Time-varying long-range dependence in US interest rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 360-367.
    7. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
    8. Serinaldi, Francesco, 2010. "Use and misuse of some Hurst parameter estimators applied to stationary and non-stationary financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2770-2781.
    9. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    11. Epaminondas Panas, 2001. "Estimating fractal dimension using stable distributions and exploring long memory through ARFIMA models in Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 395-402.
    12. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    13. Pilar Grau-Carles, 2005. "Tests of Long Memory: A Bootstrap Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 103-113, February.
    14. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2009. "Testing for long-range dependence in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1559-1573.
    15. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Fluctuation dynamics in US interest rates and the role of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 163-169, September.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    17. G. Spada & J. Farmer & F. Lillo, 2008. "The non-random walk of stock prices: the long-term correlation between signs and sizes," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 64(3), pages 607-614, August.
    18. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Nickolaos Travlos, 1996. "Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 356., Boston College Department of Economics.
    19. Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera & María Belén Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "The (in)visible hand in the Libor market: an information theory approach," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 88(8), pages 1-9, August.
    20. Zunino, Luciano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Serinaldi, Francesco & Zanin, Massimiliano & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2011. "Commodity predictability analysis with a permutation information theory approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 876-890.
    21. Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.
    22. Bariviera, A.F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B., 2012. "A comparative analysis of the informational efficiency of the fixed income market in seven European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 426-428.
    23. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    24. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    25. Aurelio F. Bariviera & M. Belen Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2015. "A permutation Information Theory tour through different interest rate maturities: the Libor case," Papers 1509.00217, arXiv.org.
    26. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    27. I. Vodenska-Chitkushev & F. Z. Wang & P. Weber & K. Yamasaki & S. Havlin & H. E. Stanley, 2008. "Comparison between volatility return intervals of the S&P 500 index and two common models," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 217-223, January.
    28. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2010. "Complexity-entropy causality plane: A useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1891-1901.
    29. Bariviera, Aurelio Fernández, 2011. "The influence of liquidity on informational efficiency: The case of the Thai Stock Market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4426-4432.
    30. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
    31. Aurelio Fernández Bariviera & M. Belén Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez, 2014. "Informational Efficiency in Distressed Markets: The Case of European Corporate Bonds," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 349-369.
    32. Grau-Carles, Pilar, 2000. "Empirical evidence of long-range correlations in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 396-404.
    33. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    34. Carbone, A. & Castelli, G. & Stanley, H.E., 2004. "Time-dependent Hurst exponent in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 267-271.
    35. Martinez, Lisana B. & Terceño, Antonio & Teruel, Mercedes, 2013. "Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-75.
    36. Zunino, Luciano & Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "On the efficiency of sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4342-4349.
    37. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
    38. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    39. Saadet Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu & A. Duygu Ayhan, 2009. "Long memory in stock returns: evidence from the major emerging Central European stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1763-1768.
    40. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2005. "Possible causes of long-range dependence in the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 635-645.
    41. Benoit B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Fabregat-Aibar, Laura & Sorrosal-Forradellas, Maria-Teresa, 2023. "Disentangling the impact of economic and health crises on financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency of developed and emerging bond markets: Evidence from long-spans of historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 632-647.
    3. Mustafa Demirel & Gazanfer Unal, 2020. "Applying multivariate-fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Basgall, María José & Hasperué, Waldo & Naiouf, Marcelo, 2017. "Some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 82-90.
    2. Zunino, Luciano & Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Monitoring the informational efficiency of European corporate bond markets with dynamical permutation min-entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2017. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin revisited: A dynamic approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-4.
    4. Bariviera, Aurelio Fernández, 2011. "The influence of liquidity on informational efficiency: The case of the Thai Stock Market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4426-4432.
    5. Aurelio Fernández Bariviera & M. Belén Guercio & Lisana B. Martinez, 2014. "Informational Efficiency in Distressed Markets: The Case of European Corporate Bonds," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 349-369.
    6. Arouxet, M. Belén & Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Pastor, Verónica E. & Vampa, Victoria, 2022. "Covid-19 impact on cryptocurrencies: Evidence from a wavelet-based Hurst exponent," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).
    7. Hull, Matthew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 45-61.
    8. Anju Bala & Kapil Gupta, 2020. "Examining The Long Memory In Stock Returns And Liquidity In India," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9(3), pages 25-43.
    9. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
    11. Bariviera, A.F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B., 2012. "A comparative analysis of the informational efficiency of the fixed income market in seven European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 426-428.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    14. Erhard Reschenhofer & Manveer K. Mangat, 2020. "Reducing the Bias of the Smoothed Log Periodogram Regression for Financial High-Frequency Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-15, October.
    15. Yalama, Abdullah & Celik, Sibel, 2013. "Real or spurious long memory characteristics of volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 67-72.
    16. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
    19. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Angelo Plastino & George Judge, 2018. "Spurious Seasonality Detection: A Non-Parametric Test Proposal," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Goddard, John & Onali, Enrico, 2012. "Self-affinity in financial asset returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1605.06700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.