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Funding Liquidity, Debt Tenor Structure, and Creditor's Belief: An Exogenous Dynamic Debt Run Model

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  • Gechun Liang
  • Eva Lutkebohmert
  • Wei Wei

Abstract

We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by mainly issuing short- and long-term debt. Short-term debt can have either a discrete or a more realistic staggered tenor structure. At rollover dates of short-term debt, creditors face a dynamic coordination problem. We show that a unique threshold strategy (i.e., a debt run barrier) exists for short-term creditors to decide when to withdraw their funding, and this strategy is closely related to the solution of a non-standard optimal stopping time problem with control constraints. We decompose the total credit risk into an insolvency component and an illiquidity component based on such an endogenous debt run barrier together with an exogenous insolvency barrier.

Suggested Citation

  • Gechun Liang & Eva Lutkebohmert & Wei Wei, 2012. "Funding Liquidity, Debt Tenor Structure, and Creditor's Belief: An Exogenous Dynamic Debt Run Model," Papers 1209.3513, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1209.3513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    2. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    3. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    4. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Bianca Hilberink & L.C.G. Rogers, 2002. "Optimal capital structure and endogenous default," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 237-263.
    7. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    8. Hayne E. Leland, 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1213-1243, August.
    9. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, June.
    10. Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
    11. Ing-Haw Cheng & Konstantin Milbradt, 2012. "The Hazards of Debt: Rollover Freezes, Incentives, and Bailouts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1070-1110.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Krishenik & Andreea Minca & Johannes Wissel, 2015. "When do creditors with heterogeneous beliefs agree to run?," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 233-259, April.
    2. Dermine, Jean, 2015. "Basel III leverage ratio requirement and the probability of bank runs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 266-277.
    3. Klimenko, Nataliya & Moreno-Bromberg, Santiago, 2016. "The shadow costs of repos and bank liability structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-29.

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