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Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations

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  • Martin Rypdal
  • Espen Sirnes
  • Ola L{o}vsletten
  • Kristoffer Rypdal

Abstract

Maximum likelihood estimation applied to high-frequency data allows us to quantify intermittency in the fluctu- ations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency parameter {\lambda} characterising the degree of volatility clustering of asset prices. We can therefore study the time evolution of volatility clustering and test the statistical significance of this variability. By analysing data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and comparing the results with the investment grade spread, we find that the estimates of {\lambda} are lower at times of high market uncertainty.

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  • Martin Rypdal & Espen Sirnes & Ola L{o}vsletten & Kristoffer Rypdal, 2012. "Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations," Papers 1202.4877, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1202.4877
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    4. Ola L{o}vsletten & Martin Rypdal, 2011. "Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks," Papers 1112.0105, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
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