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Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek

Abstract

We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hypothesis considers financial markets as com- plex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices - DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 - we show that predictions of fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior quite well.

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity," Papers 1203.4979, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.4979
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    Cited by:

    1. Horta, Paulo & Lagoa, Sérgio & Martins, Luís, 2014. "The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on the Hurst exponents of international stock markets: Implications for efficiency and contagion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 140-153.
    2. Anagnostidis, P. & Varsakelis, C. & Emmanouilides, C.J., 2016. "Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 116-128.
    3. Ma, Pengcheng & Li, Daye & Li, Shuo, 2016. "Efficiency and cross-correlation in equity market during global financial crisis: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 163-176.
    4. Li, Daye & Nishimura, Yusaku & Men, Ming, 2016. "The long memory and the transaction cost in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 312-320.
    5. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:605-617 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    7. Domino, Krzysztof & Błachowicz, Tomasz, 2015. "The use of copula functions for modeling the risk of investment in shares traded on world stock exchanges," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 142-151.
    8. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2013. "Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 184-193.
    9. Domino, Krzysztof & Błachowicz, Tomasz, 2014. "The use of copula functions for modeling the risk of investment in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 77-85.
    10. W. D. Chen & H. C. Li, 2016. "Wavelet decomposition of heterogeneous investment horizon," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(4), pages 714-734, October.
    11. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2013. "Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Wavelet Power Evidence," Papers 1310.1446, arXiv.org.
    12. Sun, Xuelian & Liu, Zixian, 2016. "Optimal portfolio strategy with cross-correlation matrix composed by DCCA coefficients: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 667-679.
    13. Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2012. "Price and Quantity Trajectories: Second-order Dynamics," Papers 1204.3156, arXiv.org.

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