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Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks

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  • Ola L{o}vsletten
  • Martin Rypdal

Abstract

We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the dependency structure for the latent volatility. The procedure is implemented as a package in the R computer language. Its performance is tested on synthetic data and compared to an inference approach based on the generalized method of moments. The method is applied to estimate parameters for various financial stock indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ola L{o}vsletten & Martin Rypdal, 2011. "Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks," Papers 1112.0105, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1112.0105
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    Cited by:

    1. Rypdal, Martin & Sirnes, Espen & Løvsletten, Ola & Rypdal, Kristoffer, 2013. "Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3335-3343.
    2. Rypdal, Martin & Løvsletten, Ola, 2013. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 194-207.
    3. M. Rypdal & O. L{o}vsletten, 2011. "Multifractal modeling of short-term interest rates," Papers 1111.5265, arXiv.org.

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