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Large Portfolio Asymptotics for Loss From Default

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Listed author(s):
  • Kay Giesecke
  • Konstantinos Spiliopoulos
  • Richard B. Sowers
  • Justin A. Sirignano
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We prove a law of large numbers for the loss from default and use it for approximating the distribution of the loss from default in large, potentially heterogenous portfolios. The density of the limiting measure is shown to solve a non-linear SPDE, and the moments of the limiting measure are shown to satisfy an infinite system of SDEs. The solution to this system leads to %the solution to the SPDE through an inverse moment problem, and to the distribution of the limiting portfolio loss, which we propose as an approximation to the loss distribution for a large portfolio. Numerical tests illustrate the accuracy of the approximation, and highlight its computational advantages over a direct Monte Carlo simulation of the original stochastic system.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1109.1272
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1109.1272.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2011
    Date of revision: Feb 2015
    Publication status: Published in Mathematical Finance, Volume 25, Number 1, 2015, pages 77-114
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1109.1272
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September.
    2. Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
    3. Nick Bush & Ben M. Hambly & Helen Haworth & Lei Jin & Christoph Reisinger, 2011. "Stochastic evolution equations in portfolio credit modelling with applications to exotic credit products," Papers 1103.4947, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    4. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
    5. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    6. Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    7. Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karolina Bujok & Ben Hambly & Christoph Reisinger, 2012. "Multilevel simulation of functionals of Bernoulli random variables with application to basket credit derivatives," Papers 1211.0707, arXiv.org.
    2. Josselin Garnier & George Papanicolaou & Tzu-Wei Yang, 2015. "A risk analysis for a system stabilized by a central agent," Papers 1507.08333, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    3. Wei, Li & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2016. "The loss given default of a low-default portfolio with weak contagion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 113-123.
    4. Sergey Nadtochiy & Mykhaylo Shkolnikov, 2017. "Particle systems with singular interaction through hitting times: application in systemic risk modeling," Papers 1705.00691, arXiv.org.

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