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Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events

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  • Kay Giesecke
  • Konstantinos Spiliopoulos
  • Richard B. Sowers

Abstract

We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is influenced by an idiosyncratic risk process, a systematic risk process common to all firms, and past defaults. We prove a law of large numbers for the default rate in the pool, which describes the "typical" behavior of defaults.

Suggested Citation

  • Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2011. "Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events," Papers 1104.1773, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1104.1773
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1104.1773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
    2. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
    3. Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    4. Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasia Borovykh & Andrea Pascucci & Stefano la Rovere, 2017. "Systemic risk in a mean-field model of interbank lending with self-exciting shocks," Papers 1710.00231, arXiv.org.
    2. Robert Elliott & Jia Shen, 2015. "Credit risk and contagion via self-exciting default intensity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 319-344, November.
    3. Lijun Bo & Agostino Capponi, 2014. "Bilateral credit valuation adjustment for large credit derivatives portfolios," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 431-482, April.
    4. repec:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:135-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ben Hambly & Andreas Sojmark, 2018. "An SPDE Model for Systemic Risk with Endogenous Contagion," Papers 1801.10088, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    6. Josselin Garnier & George Papanicolaou & Tzu-Wei Yang, 2015. "A risk analysis for a system stabilized by a central agent," Papers 1507.08333, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    7. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2014. "Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems," Papers 1402.5352, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    8. Fei Fang & Yiwei Sun & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2016. "The effect of heterogeneity on flocking behavior and systemic risk," Papers 1607.08287, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    9. Delarue, F. & Inglis, J. & Rubenthaler, S. & Tanré, E., 2015. "Particle systems with a singular mean-field self-excitation. Application to neuronal networks," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(6), pages 2451-2492.
    10. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2013. "Default Clustering in Large Pools: Large Deviations," Papers 1311.0498, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.

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