Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events
We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is influenced by an idiosyncratic risk process, a systematic risk process common to all firms, and past defaults. We prove a law of large numbers for the default rate in the pool, which describes the "typical" behavior of defaults.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2011|
|Date of revision:||Feb 2013|
|Publication status:||Published in Annals of Applied Probability 2013, Vol. 23, No. 1, 348-385|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007.
"Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
- Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009.
"Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses,"
Stochastic Processes and their Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
- Paolo Dai Pra & Marco Tolotti, 2008. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Papers 0806.3399, arXiv.org.
- Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1104.1773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.