IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aps/wpaper/1002527.html

Is It Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Toshihiko HAYASHI

    (Asia Pacific Institute of Research)

Abstract

This study is an attempt to assess the impact of policy initiatives launched by Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Japan’s real GDP in his first quarter in office. We use as a benchmark for measurement a counterfactual estimate of GDP. Since the Japanese economy is also in the midst of reconstruction from the 2011 Tohoku disaster in the first quarter of 2013, we first estimate the counterfactual GDP which would have materialized in the absence of that disaster. We will use a dummy variable method and the statistical method proposed by Cheng Hsia and others. We check the validity of these methods with regard to the Kobe earthquake of 1995, and then estimate the post-disaster counterfactual GDP for the Tohoku disaster. We measure the impact of government policies as the difference between the actual and counterfactual GDP. By doing so, we conclude that government policies have failed to lift Japan’s GDP to the expected level. Even with the help of Abenomics, the gap remains in the rage of 3 to 13 trillion yen per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Toshihiko HAYASHI, 2013. "Is It Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis," APIR Discussion Paper Series 1002527, Asia Pacific Institute of Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:aps:wpaper:1002527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.apir.or.jp/ja/research/files/2013/06/DP_35.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mampei Hayashi, 2012. "A Quick Method for Assessing Economic Damage Caused by Natural Disasters: An Epidemiological Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(4), pages 417-427, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policy and Large Scale Fiscal Policy Effective?: The Case of Japan," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 42-48, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toshihiko Hayashi, 2014. "Is it Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 23-31, February.
    2. Heinrich, Ralph P., 1999. "Complementarities in Corporate Governance - A Survey of the Literature with Special Emphasis on Japan," Kiel Working Papers 947, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Richard S.Grossman, 2016. "Banking Crises," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2016-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    4. Takashi Hatakeda, 2006. "Share Repurchase Behavior of Japanese Banks," Discussion Papers 2006-27, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
    5. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-17, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Hatem Salah & Marwa Souissi, 2016. "Financial Stability and Macro Prudential Regulation: Policy Implication of Systemic Expected Shortfall Measure," Working Papers 985, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2016.
    7. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Deflation, Credit and Asset Prices," Working Papers 132003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Raphael Fischer & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Regional heterogeneity, the rise of public debt and monetary policy in post-bubble Japan: lessons for the EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-428, April.
    10. repec:jpe:journl:795 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Limpaphayom, Piman & Rogers, Daniel A. & Yanase, Noriyoshi, 2019. "Bank equity ownership and corporate hedging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 765-783.
    12. Nan-Kuang Chen & Hsiao-Lei Chu, 2003. "Collateral Value and Forbearance Lending," CEP Discussion Papers dp0603, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Wu, Xueping & Yao, Jun, 2012. "Understanding the rise and decline of the Japanese main bank system: The changing effects of bank rent extraction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 36-50.
    14. Iftekhar Hasan & Larry D. Wall, 2004. "Determinants of the Loan Loss Allowance: Some Cross‐Country Comparisons," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 129-152, February.
    15. Wako Watanabe, 2004. "Prudential Regulation, the Credit Crunch" and the Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0617, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    16. Imai, Masami, 2019. "Regulatory responses to banking crisis: Lessons from Japan," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 10-16.
    17. Xavier Vives, 2011. "Competition and Stability in Banking," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 12, pages 455-502, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Kenneth Kang & Murtaza Syed, 2009. "Overcoming the Global Financial Crisis: Some Lessons from Japan's "Lost Decade"," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(03), pages 13-20, October.
    19. Ayako Yasuda, 2001. "Institutions, Relationships and Bank Competition in Bond Underwriting Markets: An International Comparative Study," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Adam Posen, 2003. "It Takes More Than a Bubble to Become Japan," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.),Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Robert Dekle & Kenneth Kletzer, 2004. "Deposit Insurance, Regulatory Forbearance and Economic Growth: Implications for the Japanese Banking Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1136, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aps:wpaper:1002527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: APIR stuff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/apirojp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.