Forecasting newspaper demand with censored regression
Newspaper circulation has to be determined at the level of the individual retail outlets for each of the editions to be sold through such outlets. Traditional forecasting methods provide no insight into the impact of the service level defined as the probability that no out-of-stock will occur. The service level results in out-of stock situations, causing missed sales and oversupply or returns. In our application management sets a policy aiming at a 97 percent service level. The forecasting system developed provides estimates for excess deliveries and for the expected shortages. The results compare favorably to the traditional moving average approach previously employed by the publisher. Censored regression is a natural approach to the newspaper problem. It provides information on key policy variables and it is relatively simple to integrate into the distribution policy, with only small adaptations to the existing forecasting and distribution policy.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Prinsstraat 13, B-2000 Antwerpen|
Web page: https://www.uantwerp.be/en/faculties/applied-economic-sciences/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2008006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joeri Nys)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.