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Persistent Low-Skill Traps: A Propensity Score Matching Study on Occupational Mobility of Native and Migrants Workers in Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Giovanna Bosco

    (Department of Management, Marche Polytechnic University, Italy)

  • Elisa Valeriani

    (Department of Law, University of Modena and Reggio-Emilia, Italy)

  • Linda Armano

    (Interconnected Nord-Est Innovation Ecosystem - Temporary Project Centre, Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

Abstract

The study rigorously analyzes the occupational trajectories of foreign- and native-born workers in Italy's Emilia-Romagna region. Using a comprehensive administrative dataset spanning 2008-2015, we assess patterns of upward professional mobility and empirically test the widely discussed stepping-stone hypothesis by examining job transitions across skill levels. Our empirical findings reveal a persistent and significant disparity. Specifically, foreign workers have a substantially higher probability of remaining in low-skilled occupations, indicating limited upward mobility. We also separately analyze the stability of initial employment and the incidence of subsequent unemployment spells, revealing clear and quantifiable differences between the two cohorts. These results provide robust evidence for the existence of an ethnicity penalty and a low-skill penalty that systematically impede professional advancement within the regional labor market. This form of occupational segregation, differentiated by ethnic origin, is consistent with patterns observed in other Southern European and Asian economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Giovanna Bosco & Elisa Valeriani & Linda Armano, 2026. "Persistent Low-Skill Traps: A Propensity Score Matching Study on Occupational Mobility of Native and Migrants Workers in Emilia-Romagna, Italy," Working Papers 507, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:507
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John T. Addison & Chad D. Cotti & Christopher J. Surfield, 2015. "Atypical Jobs: Stepping Stones or Dead Ends? Evidence from the NLSY79," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(1), pages 17-55, January.
    2. Liu, Yang, 2024. "Immigrant-native gaps of unemployment and permanent employment in Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1443-1463.
    3. repec:sae:mrxval:v:57:y:2023:i:1:p:328-356 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López‐Bazo, 2021. "Immigration and Native Employment. Evidence from Italian Provinces in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 405-428, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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