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Oeffentliche Finanzbedarfe fuer Klimainvestitionen im Zeitraum 2021-2030

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Krebs

    (Universitaet Mannheim)

  • Janek Steitz

    (Agora Energiewende)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie schaetzt den oeffentlichen Finanzbedarf fuer Klimainvestitionen, die zum Erreichen des 2030-Klimaziels der Bundesregierung im Zeitraum 2021-2030 verwirklicht werden muessen. Die Analyse orientiert sich – wo moeglich – am Technologiepfad des Szenarios KN2045 von Prognos et al (2021) und verwendet einen Bottom-up-Ansatz, der basierend auf existierenden Studienergebnissen die oeffentlichen Finanzbedarfe zur Modernisierung des Kapitalstocks fuer die einzelnen Sektoren und Investitionsarten ermittelt. Der Finanzbedarf fuer Bundesinvestitionen (z.B. Deutsche Bahn) betraegt 90 Milliarden Euro und der Finanzbedarf fuer kommunale Klimainvestitionen (z.B. ÖPNV) wird auf 170 Milliarden Euro geschaetzt. Der Finanzbedarf fuer oeffentliche Klimainvestitionen von Bund, Laendern und Kommunen belaeuft sich somit insgesamt auf 260 Milliarden Euro (26 Milliarden Euro jaehrlich). Darueber hinaus besteht ein oeffentlicher Finanzbedarf zur Foerderung privater Investitionen (z.B. energetische Sanierung) von rund 200 Milliarden Euro (20 Milliarden Euro jaehrlich), wenn als Foerdersaetze die aktuellen Werte (teils sinkend) laufender Foerderprogramme angesetzt werden. Der oeffentliche Finanzbedarf fuer alle drei Komponenten der Klimainvestitionen (Bundesinvestitionen, kommunale Investitionen, Foerderung privater Investitionen) belaeuft sich im Zeitraum 2021- 2030 auf insgesamt etwa 460 Milliarden Euro (46 Milliarden Euro jaehrlich) und ist damit groeßer als in existierenden Studien angenommen. Der Bedarf entspricht rund 6,3 Prozent der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Bruttoinvestitionen oder 1,3 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes im Jahr 2019 und erscheint der Groeße der Herausforderung angemessen. Aus Bundessicht belaeuft sich der Finanzbedarf fuer Klimainvestitionen im Zeitraum 2021-2030 auf insgesamt 290 Milliarden Euro unter der Praemisse, dass die Finanzierung der Bundesinvestitionen und die Foerderung privater Investitionen im Wesentlichen eine Bundesaufgabe, die Finanzierung kommunaler Investitionen hingegen hauptsaechlich eine Aufgabe der Laender und Kommunen ist. Die Bundesregierung hat mit dem Klimaschutzprogramm, dem Konjunkturprogramm und dem Klimaschutz-Sofortprogramm (letzteres ist bisher nur eine Ankuendigung) bereits Finanzmittel fuer Klimainvestitionen im Zeitraum 2021-2025 bereitgestellt, die sich – zusammen mit relevanten europaeischen Mitteln – auf rund 80 Milliarden Euro belaufen.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs & Janek Steitz, 2021. "Oeffentliche Finanzbedarfe fuer Klimainvestitionen im Zeitraum 2021-2030," Working Papers 3, Forum New Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2103
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen & Heidi Williams, 2019. "A toolkit of policies to promote innovation," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
    2. Ufuk Akcigit & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2020. "Taxation and Innovation: What Do We Know?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation and Public Policy, pages 189-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Schnitzer & Achim Truger, 2022. "Finanzierung von Zukunftsinvestitionen: Pragmatische Lösungen sind gefragt [Financing Investments in the Future: Pragmatic Solutions Are Needed]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(1), pages 11-14, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Klima; Klimaneutralitaet; oeffentliche Investitionen; oeffentlicher Finanzbedarf;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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