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Bounded Awareness, Heuristics and the Precautionary Principle

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  • Grant, Simon
  • Quiggin, John

Abstract

The precautionary principle has been proposed as a basis for making decisions about environmental issues but remains controversial. Using a model of inductively justified propositions about awareness, this paper shows how the precautionary principle may be interpreted as a heuristic guide for boundedly rational decisionmakers faced with the possibility of unfavorable surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Bounded Awareness, Heuristics and the Precautionary Principle," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151203, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uqsers:151203
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.151203
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    1. Suren Basov, 2005. "Bounded rationality: static versus dynamic approaches," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 871-885, June.
    2. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2013. "Dynamic unawareness and rationalizable behavior," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-68.
    3. Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vier?, 2013. ""Reverse Bayesianism": A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2790-2810, December.
    4. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2013. "Inductive reasoning about unawareness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 717-755, November.
    5. Vernon L. Smith, 2003. "Constructivist and Ecological Rationality in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 465-508, June.
    6. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2013. "Dynamic unawareness and rationalizable behavior," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-68.
    7. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2006. "Interactive unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 78-94, September.
    8. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401, December.
    9. Suren Basov & Liam Blanckenberg & Lata Gangadharan, 2007. "Behavioural Anomalies, Bounded Rationality and Simple Heuristics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1012, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
    11. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rego, Leandro Chaves, 2008. "Interactive unawareness revisited," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 232-262, January.
    12. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rêgo, Leandro C., 2009. "Reasoning about knowledge of unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 503-525, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2015. "A preference model for choice subject to surprise," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(2), pages 167-180, September.
    2. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    3. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2018. "Heuristic Modes of Decision Making and Survival in Financial Markets," Post-Print hal-02086267, HAL.
    4. Li, Sanxi & Peitz, Martin & Zhao, Xiaojian, 2016. "Information disclosure and consumer awareness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 209-230.
    5. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2013. "Inductive reasoning about unawareness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 717-755, November.
    6. Carla Susana A. Assuad, 2020. "Understanding Rationality in Sustainable Development Decision-Making: Unfolding the Motivations for Action," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1086-1119, September.
    7. Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2021. "An intertemporal model of growing awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. Quiggin, John, 2013. "Carbon pricing and the precautionary principle," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 152098, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    9. Guerdjikova, A. & Quiggin, J., 2020. "Financial market equilibrium with bounded awareness," Working Papers 2020-10, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    10. Marcello Basili & Antonio Nicita, 2020. "The Covid-19/SARS CoV-2 pandemic outbreak and the risk of institutional failures," Department of Economics University of Siena 823, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    11. Meglena Jeleva & Stéphane Rossignol, 2019. "Optimists, Pessimists, and the Precautionary Principle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 367-396, September.
    12. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2018. "Intertemporal Portfolio Choice with Incorrect Beliefs and Aversion to Surprise," Post-Print hal-02086151, HAL.
    13. Alon, Shiri, 2015. "Worst-case expected utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 43-48.
    14. H. Orri Stefánsson, 2019. "On the Limits of the Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1204-1222, June.
    15. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection With Differential Financial Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(5), pages 1693-1762, September.
    16. John Quiggin & David Adamson & Daniel Quiggin (ed.), 2014. "Carbon Pricing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15448.
    17. Claire Settre & Jeff Connor & Sarah Ann Wheeler, 2017. "Reviewing the Treatment of Uncertainty in Hydro-economic Modeling of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-35, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial Organization;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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