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Bayesian Analysis of a Japanese Meat Demand System: A Robust Likelihood Approach


  • Heckelei, Thomas
  • Mittelhammer, Ronald C.
  • Wahl, Thomas I.


This paper presents an application of Bayesian analysis to an AIDS model of Japanese meat demand extending previous approaches in three ways: (1) The methodology employed is robust with respect to the likelihood function but retains the generic, easily programmable character of algorithms offered by Monte Carlo Integration approaches based on the normal likelihood function. (2) In addition to inequality constraints, linear exact restrictions and stochastic prior information are subjected to a Bayesian posterior analysis of validity and incorporated into Bayesian point estimates of model parameters and elasticities. (3) In order to assess the influence of the prior density on posterior distributions of model parameters relative to the likelihood, a measure quantifying the "degree of prior influence" on the posterior is defined. Das Diskussionspapier stellt eine Bayes'sche Analyse eines AIDS Modells Japanischer Fleischnachfrage vor, die eine Erweiterung fruherer Ansatze in den folgenden drei Punkten darstellt:(1) Die verwendete Methode ist robust bezuglich der Likelihood Funktion, erhalt dabei aber die Flexibilitat und einfache Umsetzung von Algorithmen basierend auf Monte Carlo Integration und der Annahme der Normalverteilung. (2) Zusatzlich zu Ungleichheitsbedingungen werden exakte Restriktionen und stochastische a-priori Information einer Bayes'schen a-posteriori Analyse unterzogen und in die Bayes'sche Punktschatzung von Parametern und Elastizitaten einbezogen. (3) Ein Index zur Messung des Einflusses der a-priori Information auf die a-posteriori Verteilung der Modellparameter wird vorgestellt.

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  • Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ronald C. & Wahl, Thomas I., 1997. "Bayesian Analysis of a Japanese Meat Demand System: A Robust Likelihood Approach," Discussion Papers 18783, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubfred:18783
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18783

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. James A. Chalfant & Richard S. Gray & Kenneth J. White, 1991. "Evaluating Prior Beliefs in a Demand System: The Case of Meat Demand in Canada," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 476-490.
    2. Gallant, A. Ronald & Golub, Gene H., 1984. "Imposing curvature restrictions on flexible functional forms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-321, December.
    3. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Capps, Oral, Jr. & Tsai, Reyfong & Kirby, Raymond & Williams, Gary W., 1994. "A Comparison Of Demands For Meat Products In The Pacific Rim Region," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Thomas I. Wahl & Dermot J. Hayes, 1990. "Demand System Estimation with Upward-Sloping Supply," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 38(1), pages 107-122, March.
    6. Dermot J. Hayes & Thomas I. Wahl & Gary W. Williams, 1990. "Testing Restrictions on a Model of Japanese Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 556-566.
    7. van Dijk, H. K. & Kloek, T., 1980. "Further experience in Bayesian analysis using Monte Carlo integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 307-328, December.
    8. Dyck, John H., 1988. "Demand For Meats In Japan: A Review And An Update Of Elasticity Estimates," Staff Reports 278048, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Chalfant, James & White, Kenneth, 1987. "Estimation and Testing in Demand Systems with Concavity Constraints," CUDARE Working Papers 198466, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    10. Woodland, A. D., 1979. "Stochastic specification and the estimation of share equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 361-383, August.
    11. Koop, Gary, 1994. " Recent Progress in Applied Bayesian Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "The World Agricultural Trade Simulation System WATSIM: An Overview," Discussion Papers 18788, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    2. von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "Veranderung von Einkommenselastizitaten im Verlauf der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung - Problematik und Umsetzung im WATSIM," Discussion Papers 18780, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.

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