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Veranderung von Einkommenselastizitaten im Verlauf der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung - Problematik und Umsetzung im WATSIM

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  • von Lampe, Martin

Abstract

This paper describes the use of income elasticities for long-term simulations of agricultural world markets, where the parameters are stemming from literature. It discusses the problem of assuming constant elasticities over time. This leads to a formulation where the income elasticities are estimated as a function of income in a cross sectional analysis. Thereby, the reflection of adjustments of consumption patterns due to growing wealth particularly in the rapidly developing Asian economies is improved. The demand for poultry in China is presented as an example, because it showed particularly strong increases in the past. Dieses Diskussionspapier beschreibt die Verwendung von aus der Literatur stammenden Einkommenselastizitaten fur langfristige Simulationen der Welt-Agrarmarkte. Die Problematik bei der Annahme konstanter Einkommenselastizitaten uber die Zeit wird diskutiert und fuhrt zu einer Formulierung, bei der die Einkommensabhangigkeit der Elastizitaten im Rahmen einer regionalen Querschnittsanalyse geschatzt wird. Durch dieses Vorgehen werden die Anpassungsprozesse an steigenden Wohlstand insbesondere in den sich rasch entwickelnden Landern Asiens besser abgebildet als bisher. Beispielhaft wird die Geflugelfleischnachfrage in China dargestellt, die eine besonders ausge pragte Dynamik aufweist.

Suggested Citation

  • von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "Veranderung von Einkommenselastizitaten im Verlauf der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung - Problematik und Umsetzung im WATSIM," Discussion Papers 18780, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubfred:18780
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ronald C., 1996. "Bayesian Bootstrap Analysis of Systems of Equations," Discussion Papers 18786, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Heckelei, Thomas & Krebs, Elvira & Mollmann, Claus & von Lampe, Martin, 1998. "Comparative Analysis of World Market Projections with Special Regard to Wheat Prices," Discussion Papers 18778, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    3. Heckelei, Thomas & Mittelhammer, Ronald C. & Wahl, Thomas I., 1997. "Bayesian Analysis of a Japanese Meat Demand System: A Robust Likelihood Approach," Discussion Papers 18783, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
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    Demand and Price Analysis;

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