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Uma Análise Da Relação Entre Os Preços Dos Biocombustíveis E Das Culturas Alimentares No Brasil: O Caso Do Setor Sucroalcooleiro

Author

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  • Melo, Andre De Souza
  • Mota, Daniela Gonzaga Da
  • Lima, Ricardo Chaves

Abstract

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o impacto do crescimento do preço de etanol no preço do açúcar. Para tal análise utiliza-se a metodologia de vetores autorregressivos para identificar a relação de causalidade entre os preços do etanol e do açúcar. O crescimento do preço do etanol é resultado de um aumento da demanda internacional pela commodity devido a questões ambientais, econômicas e geopolíticas; e resultado também do crescimento do consumo interno de etanol com a introdução de veículos flex na frota brasileira. Com esse aumento da demanda por etanol, foi gerada uma competição com a produção de açúcar, reduzindo a disponibilidade dessa commodity. Como resultado, foi encontrada uma relação de bicausalidade entre os preços do etanol e do açúcar. Em conseqüência, políticas governamentais devem se preocupar com os problemas de segurança alimentar, quando se incentivam programas de produção de biocombustíveis.---------------------------------------------This paper aims to analyze the ethanol price increase impact on sugar price. To develop this examination we apply Vector Autorregression methodology to identify causality relation between the prices of alcohol and sugar. The price increase of ethanol is a result of an international demand increase for this commodity, due to environmental, economic and geopolitical issues. It is also a result of the ethanol domestic consumption increase with the introduction of flex vehicles in Brazil. With this demand intensification for ethanol, a competition arises against the sugar production. This situation represents an impact on sugar production, reducing the availability for this commodity. As a result, a bicausal relation between prices of alcohol and sugar was found. In consequence, decision makers must beware of food security problems when inducing biofuel production programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Melo, Andre De Souza & Mota, Daniela Gonzaga Da & Lima, Ricardo Chaves, 2008. "Uma Análise Da Relação Entre Os Preços Dos Biocombustíveis E Das Culturas Alimentares No Brasil: O Caso Do Setor Sucroalcooleiro," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil 109701, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid, 2006. "Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, An," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 06-wp435, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    3. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    4. Oecd, 2006. "Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 1-57.
    5. Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Burnquist, Heloisa Lee & Vian, Carlos Eduardo de Freitas, 2006. "Bioenergy and the Rise of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol in Brazil," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2).
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