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How pro-poor are productivity gains in agriculture? The case of the national agricultural investment plan of Benin

Author

Listed:
  • Grethe, Harald
  • Luckmann, Jonas
  • Siddig, Khalid
  • Kinkpe, Thierry

Abstract

This study conducts an ex-ante assessment of the effects of the agricultural productivity and production objectives under the Beninese agricultural investment plan (PNIASAN) from 2017 to 2021 on different sectors and the economy of Benin as a whole. A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model is used for the analysis, building on a comprehensive Social Accounting Matrix. Impacts of the PNIASAN are compared to a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, for which a continuation of historical growth rates is assumed. Under the PNIASAN, the total agricultural production quantity is 17% higher in 2021 and the average agricultural price level is 15% lower compared to the BAU scenario. Due to this, consumption of food is 11% higher. In 2021, GDP is 5% higher than under the BAU scenario. All household groups experience welfare benefits from implementing the PNIASAN, though to a different extent. Low-income households benefit more from the declined food prices in relative terms, as their food expenditure share is higher than for richer households. On the income side, all households except the poorest rural and urban income quintiles benefit, and the higher their income, the more households benefit in rural as well as in urban areas due to the composition of their factor income. In conclusion, the productivity and land targets implied by the PNIASAN make the economy of Benin better off. Their achievement, however, is not automatically pro-poor: with respect to income, richer households benefit more than poorer households and the poorest rural households even experience an income loss, although they derive substantial welfare gains from the expenditure side as food prices decline resulting in a positive net welfare gain. This implies the need for an implementation of the measures specified in the plan that targets the poor as well as for complementary policies if the government of Benin intends this plan or future plans on agricultural development to be pro-poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Grethe, Harald & Luckmann, Jonas & Siddig, Khalid & Kinkpe, Thierry, 2020. "How pro-poor are productivity gains in agriculture? The case of the national agricultural investment plan of Benin," Conference papers 333165, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clemens Breisinger & Xinshen Diao & James Thurlow & Ramatu M. Al Hassan, 2011. "Potential impacts of a green revolution in Africa—the case of Ghana," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 82-102, January.
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