IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Effects of the New Silk Road

Author

Listed:
  • Baniya, Suprabha
  • Murray, Siobhan
  • Rocha, Nadia
  • Ruta, Michele

Abstract

This paper takes a first look at the trade effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also referred to as the New Silk Road, on the 65 countries potentially involved. The pillar of the initiative consists of a number of infrastructure investment projects to improve the land and maritime transportation in the BRI region. We first use geo-referenced data and geographical information systems (GIS) analysis to compute the bilateral time to trade before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. Then, we estimate the effect of improvement in bilateral timeliness to trade on bilateral export values and on trade patterns using a gravity model and a comparative advantage model similar to Nunn (2007). We use physical geography features of transit countries as instruments of bilateral trade time to address the endogeneity between trade and infrastructure. We find that (i) the BRI would have sizeable effects on trade flows among participating countries; (ii) these effects would be magnified if deeper trade agreements complement the upgrading in transport infrastructure; (iii) products that use time sensitive inputs, and countries that are highly exposed to the new infrastructure and that are integrated in the global production chains have larger trade gains. Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, Transport Infrastructure, GIS Analysis, Trade Flows, Time Sensitivity, Input-output Linkages

Suggested Citation

  • Baniya, Suprabha & Murray, Siobhan & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2018. "Trade Effects of the New Silk Road," Conference papers 333010, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333010/files/9023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    2. Coşar, A. Kerem & Demir, Banu, 2016. "Domestic road infrastructure and international trade: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 232-244.
    3. Suprabha Baniya, 2017. "Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods," IMF Working Papers 2017/044, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Redding, Stephen J. & Turner, Matthew A., 2015. "Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1339-1398, Elsevier.
    5. Dave Donaldson & Richard Hornbeck, 2016. "Railroads and American Economic Growth: A "Market Access" Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 799-858.
    6. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Blyde, Juan, 2013. "Shaky roads and trembling exports: Assessing the trade effects of domestic infrastructure using a natural experiment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 148-161.
    7. Simon Alder, 2015. "Chinese Roads in India: The Effect of Transport Infrastructure on Economic Development," 2015 Meeting Papers 1447, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Clark, Ximena & Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro, 2004. "Port efficiency, maritime transport costs, and bilateral trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 417-450, December.
    9. A. Kerem Co?ar & Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, 2016. "Internal Geography, International Trade, and Regional Specialization," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 24-56, February.
    10. Benjamin Faber, 2014. "Trade Integration, Market Size, and Industrialization: Evidence from China's National Trunk Highway System," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1046-1070.
    11. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Chandra, Amitabh & Thompson, Eric, 2000. "Does public infrastructure affect economic activity?: Evidence from the rural interstate highway system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 457-490, July.
    13. Guy Michaels, 2008. "The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 683-701, November.
    14. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    15. Pablo Fajgelbaum & A. Kerem Cosar, 2013. "Internal Geography, International Trade, and Regional Outcomes," 2013 Meeting Papers 63, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Hummels, David, 2001. "Time As A Trade Barrier," Working papers 28701, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Redding, Stephen J. & Turner, Matthew A., 2015. "Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1339-1398, Elsevier.
    2. Roberts,Mark & Melecky,Martin & Bougna,Theophile & Xu,Yan-000462055, 2018. "Transport corridors and their wider economic benefits : a critical review of the literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8302, The World Bank.
    3. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1411-1452, July.
    4. Stephan Fretz & Raphaël Parchet & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2022. "Highways, Market Access and Spatial Sorting," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1011-1036.
    5. Mark Roberts & Martin Melecky & Théophile Bougna & Yan (Sarah) Xu, 2020. "Transport corridors and their wider economic benefits: A quantitative review of the literature," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 207-248, March.
    6. Bird, Julia & Straub, Stéphane, 2020. "The Brasília experiment: The heterogeneous impact of road access on spatial development in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    8. Xu, Yang & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Access to ports and the welfare gains from domestic transportation infrastructure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. He, Guojun & Xie, Yang & Zhang, Bing, 2020. "Expressways, GDP, and the environment: The case of China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Stephen J. Redding, 2022. "Trade, Structural Transformation, and Development: Evidence from Argentina 1869–1914," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(5), pages 1249-1318.
    11. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    12. Wu, Mingqin & Yu, Linhui & Zhang, Junsen, 2023. "Road expansion, allocative efficiency, and pro-competitive effect of transport infrastructure: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. HOSONO Kaoru & MIYAKAWA Daisuke & ONO Arito & UCHIDA Hirofumi & UESUGI Iichiro, 2019. "Damage to the Transportation Infrastructure and Disruption of Inter-firm Transactional Relationships," Discussion papers 19043, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Okamoto, Chigusa & Sato, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Impacts of high-speed rail construction on land prices in urban agglomerations: Evidence from Kyushu in Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Bogart, Dan & You, Xuesheng & Alvarez-Palau, Eduard J. & Satchell, Max & Shaw-Taylor, Leigh, 2022. "Railways, divergence, and structural change in 19th century England and Wales," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo & Cusolito, Ana, 2017. "Roads, exports and employment: Evidence from a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 21-39.
    17. Berger, Thor, 2019. "Railroads and Rural Industrialization: evidence from a Historical Policy Experiment," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Baek, Jisun & Park, WooRam, 2022. "The impact of improved passenger transport system on manufacturing plant productivity," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    19. Yang, Xiaolan & Wang, Rui & Guo, Dongmei & Sun, Weizeng, 2020. "The reconfiguration effect of China's high-speed railway on intercity connection ——A study based on media attention index," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 47-56.
    20. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2019. "High-speed rail and inventory reduction: firm-level evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(25), pages 2715-2730, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Development;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.