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Effects of EU Sugar Trade Reforms on Poor Households in Africa: A General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Gotor, Elisabetta
  • Tsigas, Marinos E.

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of the EU sugar reforms on poor households in African countries. Our analysis will be based on a modified version of the GTAP computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. This is a preliminary analysis of a broader study which has the intention to analyse the impact of the EU sugar regime reform in the Sugar Protocol (SP) which by 2008 will become one of the agreements of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA). The scope of the study is to evaluate the effects produced in those countries sugar cane producer signatories of the SP in terms of loss in export earnings and household incomes in the light also of the Everything but Arms initiative. We will focus our analysis on Malawi (LDCs), Tanzania (LDCs), Zimbabwe (developing), Madagascar (LDCs), Uganda (LDCs), Botswana (developing) Mauritius (developing), Nigeria (developing) Zambia (LDCs) Rest of South African Customs Union (SACU) Rest of Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rest of SubSaharan Africa. Moreover our data will include EU, Brazil, Rest of Developed, Rest of Developing and rest of LDCs. We will combine expenditure-distribution statistics with information contained in the GTAP data to identify several household groups by per capita expenditure. Expenditure groups will be different from each other due to differences in consumption patterns and income shares from different sources. We will also discuss insights learned from multiple households in the CGE model, and the importance of getting demand elasticities and resource ownership patterns right. Preliminary results will be compared with results obtained from standard GTAP and further rooms of improvements and revisions will be underlined for future studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gotor, Elisabetta & Tsigas, Marinos E., 2006. "Effects of EU Sugar Trade Reforms on Poor Households in Africa: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331506, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331506
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