IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ircipa/295077.html

A Framework for Multistate Demoeconomic Modeling and Projection, With an Illustrative Application

Author

Listed:
  • Rogers, Andrei
  • Williams, Pamela

Abstract

This paper outlines a theoretical framework for the consistent and policy relevant projection of populations disaggregated by sex, age, marital status, and region. The framework makes use of multistate life table and projection techniques, and a two-sex model of transitions between the married, divorced, and widowed states, to ensure the consistent determination of the future size and structure of the population on the basis of transitions assumed to occur over the projection period. It also uses model schedules to reduce the information load required for projection and to produce descriptive and interpretable parameters which can be explained and.projected with the aid of an economic model that relates these parameters of demographic transition to their demographic and economic determinants. An illustrative application of this framework, using Australian data, is included.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogers, Andrei & Williams, Pamela, 1982. "A Framework for Multistate Demoeconomic Modeling and Projection, With an Illustrative Application," Impact Project Archive 295077, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ircipa:295077
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.295077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/295077/files/melbourne044.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.295077?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Hoem & Dan Madien & Jørgen Nielsen & Else-Marie Ohlsen & Hans Hansen & Bo Rennermalm, 1981. "Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(2), pages 231-244, May.
    2. Wilkinson, Maurice, 1970. "European Migration to the United States: An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Labor Supply and Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(3), pages 272-279, August.
    3. John Michael Quigley, 1972. "An Economic Model of Swedish Emigration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(1), pages 111-126.
    4. Rodgers, Gerry. & Hopkins, Michael, & Wéry, René., 1976. "Economic-demographic modelling for development planning: bachue- Philippines," ILO Working Papers 991684863402676, International Labour Organization.
    5. Simon, Julian L, 1976. "Population Growth May Be Good for LDCs in the Long Run: A Richer Simulation Model," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 309-337, January.
    6. Hutchens, Robert M, 1979. "Welfare, Remarriage, and Marital Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 369-379, June.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:168486 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    9. Robert J. Willis, 1974. "Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 25-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Schwartz, Aba, 1973. "Interpreting the Effect of Distance on Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(5), pages 1153-1169, Sept.-Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sams, Dennis & Williams, Plamela, 1982. "Some Projections of Australian Population and Labour Force, 1980 to 2001," Impact Project Archive 295076, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    2. Hubert Jayet, 1996. "L'analyse économique des migrations, une synthèse critique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(2), pages 193-226.
    3. Brooks, Clive, 1982. "AN Econometric Model of Fertility, Marriage, Divorce and Labour Force Participation for Australian Women," Impact Project Archive 295075, Impact Research Centre, University of Melbourne.
    4. Vaillant, Nicolas G. & Harrant, Valérie, 2008. "Determinants of the likelihood of finding the right partner in an arranged marriage: Evidence from a French matchmaking agency," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 657-671, April.
    5. Grossbard-Shechtman, Shoshana, 2003. "A consumer theory with competitive markets for work in marriage," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 609-645.
    6. Grossbard, Shoshana, 1993. "On the Economics of Marriage - A Theory of Marriage, Labor and Divorce. Out of print. Published originally by Westview Press in 1993 under name Grossbard-Shechtman," MPRA Paper 81059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ward, Clement E. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Dutton, Jennifer M., 2008. "Implicit Value of Retail Beef Product Attributes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-18.
    8. Reynolds, Travis & Kolodinsky, Jane & Murray, Byron, 2012. "Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for compact fluorescent lighting: Policy implications for energy efficiency promotion in Saint Lucia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 712-722.
    9. Abdullah, Sabah & Mariel, Petr, 2010. "Choice experiment study on the willingness to pay to improve electricity services," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4570-4581, August.
    10. Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Zagórska, Katarzyna & Letki, Natalia & Tryjanowski, Piotr & Wąs, Adam, 2021. "Drivers of farmers’ willingness to adopt extensive farming practices in a globally important bird area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Canessa, Carolin & Venus, Terese E. & Wiesmeier, Miriam & Mennig, Philipp & Sauer, Johannes, 2023. "Incentives, Rewards or Both in Payments for Ecosystem Services: Drawing a Link Between Farmers' Preferences and Biodiversity Levels," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Rebecca Boehm & Hannah Kitchel & Selena Ahmed & Anaya Hall & Colin M. Orians & John Richard Stepp & Al Robbat, Jr. & Timothy S. Griffin & Sean B. Cash, 2019. "Is Agricultural Emissions Mitigation on the Menu for Tea Drinkers?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-20, September.
    13. Raj Chandra & GianCarlo Moschini & Gabriel E. Lade, 2025. "Geographical indications and welfare: Evidence from US wine demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(2), pages 670-695, March.
    14. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Onundur Pall Ragnarsson, 2025. "A Hedonic Housing Model for Macroprudential Policy," Economics wp99, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    16. Huang, Chung L. & Lin, Biing-Hwan, 2006. "A Hedonic Analysis on the Implicit Values of Fresh Tomatoes," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25404, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Eliane El Badaoui & Eric Strobl & Frank Walsh, 2014. "The Impact of Internal Migration on Local Labour Markets in Thailand," Working Papers hal-04141356, HAL.
    18. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    19. Hyowon Kim & Dong Soo Kim & Greg M. Allenby, 2020. "Benefit Formation and Enhancement," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 419-468, December.
    20. Hussain, Salman, 2006. "Co-regulation and voluntarism in the provision of food safety: lessons from institutional economics," Working Papers 45996, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ircipa:295077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.