Impact of Agricultural Income Shocks due to Extreme Weather Events on the Food Security of the Poor in Central Asia

The majority of rural households in Central Asia have strong dependence on farming incomes for their livelihoods. Any adverse shocks on agricultural production, for example, through extreme weather events, could have negative consequences on their food security. The analysis of the nationally representative agricultural household surveys using quantile regressions by instrumentalizing for endogeneity between consumption and production decisions confirms that poorer households are more vulnerable to the impacts of farming income shocks. Every 1% decrease in the level of their farming profits is likely to lead to 0.52% decrease in their food expenses. A similar decrease for the richest 10% of agricultural households would translate to only 0.39% decrease in food consumption. Key measures to enhance food security among the poor agricultural households in Central Asia were found to be improving market access and diversifying crop portfolios.