IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/copspp/266357.html

How Does the Share of Imports Change During Structural Adjustment?

Author

Listed:
  • Powell, Alan A.

Abstract

Estimating the price responsiveness of market shares during a period of structural transition requires a distinction to be made between responses to variables explicitly recognized in the model and those due to more general changes in the trading environment. Often the latter are minimally modelled as market penetration curves taking the form of a sigmoid trend. Broadly this is the approach followed in the present paper; however, the trend 'parameter' capturing ultimate market share at a fixed level of price competitiveness is itself made a logistic function of the logarithm of the relative price variable measuring such competitiveness. The application of the model is to quarterly data on the share of imports in Australian personal consumption over the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Most of the signal relevant to price competition between domestic and imported consumer goods occurred over the four years 1985-1988. This coincided with sizeable movements in the real exchange rate; and therefore, presumably, with collinear movements in the prices of the components within the domestic and the imported aggregates, which would be favourable circumstances for the application of Hicks' composite commodity idea. The responses in aggregate market shares during this episode suggest a very long-run Armington elasticity in the range 3.4 to 4.8, with short-run (quarterly) values of 0.6 to 0.8.

Suggested Citation

  • Powell, Alan A., "undated". "How Does the Share of Imports Change During Structural Adjustment?," Papers 266357, Center of Policy Studies (COPS) Impact Project Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:copspp:266357
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.266357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/266357/files/monash-030.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/266357/files/monash-030.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.266357?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris M. Alaouze & John S. Marsden & John Zeitsch, 1977. "Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution Between Imported and Domestically Produced Commodities at the Four Digit ASIC Level," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-11, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Fry, Jane M. & Fry, Tim R. L. & McLaren, Keith R., 1996. "The stochastic specification of demand share equations: Restricting budget shares to the unit simplex," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 377-385, August.
    3. Giles, D. E. A. & King, M. L., 1978. "Fourth-order autocorrelation : Further significance points for the Wallis test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 255-259, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masato Yamazaki & Atsushi Koike & Yoshinori Sone, 2018. "A Heuristic Approach to the Estimation of Key Parameters for a Monthly, Recursive, Dynamic CGE Model," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 283-301, October.
    2. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, 2012. "Quantity Versus Shares in Estimating Demand Systems," Working Papers 124575, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Miguel, Carlos de & O'Ryan, Raúl & Pereira, Mauricio & Carriquiri, Bruno, 2009. "Energy shocks, fiscal policy and CO2 emissions in Chile," Conference papers 331817, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Berta Ferrer-Rosell & Germà Coenders & Glòria Mateu-Figueras & Vera Pawlowsky-Glahn, 2016. "Understanding Low-Cost Airline Users' Expenditure Patterns and Volume," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 269-291, April.
    5. Kapuscinski, Cezary A. & Warr, Peter G., 1999. "Estimation of Armington elasticities: an application to the Philippines," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 257-278, April.
    6. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    7. Cassoni, Adriana & Flores, Manuel, 2008. "Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities," Conference papers 331813, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1213-1269, Elsevier.
    9. John Mullahy, 2010. "Multivariate Fractional Regression Estimation of Econometric Share Models," NBER Working Papers 16354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Clements, Kenneth W. & Gao, Grace, 2012. "Quality, quantity, spending and prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1376-1391.
    11. Chris M. Alaouze, 1977. "Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestically produced goods classified at the input-output level of aggregation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-13, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    12. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, "undated". "Testing the Adding Up Condition in Demand Systems," Working Papers 171748, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Ferrer-Rosell, Berta & Coenders, GermÃ, 2017. "Airline type and tourist expenditure: Are full service and low cost carriers converging or diverging?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-125.
    14. Barigozzi, Matteo & Alessi, Lucia & Capasso, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2012. "The distribution of household consumption-expenditure budget shares," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 69-91.
    15. Peter Dixon, 2022. "H. David Evans, 1941-2022: Progenitor of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-331, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    16. Bajzik, Jozef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2019. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Goods: A Quantitative Survey," EconStor Preprints 200207, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. José M. R. Murteira & Joaquim J. S. Ramalho, 2016. "Regression Analysis of Multivariate Fractional Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 515-552, April.
    18. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
    19. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    20. Jayant Menon, 1993. "Import Price and Activity Elasticities for the MONASH Model: Johansen FIML Estimation of Cointegration Vectors," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-58, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:copspp:266357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.