Agricultural Trade Policy Modelling: Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Doha Development Agenda Outcomes
In a meta-analysis of trade policy models, Hess and von Cramon-Taubadel (2008) use over 5800 simulated welfare effects from 110 studies of potential Doha Development Agenda outcomes to identify characteristics of models, data and policy experiments that influence simulation results. This meta-analysis, which is recapitulated here, produces plausible results and explains a significant proportion of the variation in simulated welfare effects. However, due to insufficient documentation and the complexity of the general and partial equilibrium models in the literature sample, many explanatory variables employed in this analysis are binary. This precludes more detailed analysis of their impacts across models. Therefore, a partial equilibrium model and a single country CGE for Canada are employed to generate synthetic meta-data. Simulation scenarios are based on random combinations of base data, elasticities and tariff changes selected from plausible ranges obtained from the literature sample. The synthetic meta-data has the advantage that the values of explanatory variables are measured exactly. This makes it possible to explore more complex issues of functional form and interaction between variables in the meta-analysis. The results indicate for both models that first- and second-order polynomials provide sufficient approximations of the model response. Especially in the CGE model, interaction terms between elasticities and policy variables are important. We conclude that meta-analysis can provide insights into the behaviour of trade policy models beyond what is possible with conventional sensitivity analysis and qualitative reviews.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005.
"Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What’s at Stake for Developing Countries?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5156, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 169-195.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Doha merchandise trade reform : what's at stake for developing countries ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3848, The World Bank.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2005. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: WhatÂ’s at Stake for Developing Countries?," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-16, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2006.
"Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 207-232, July.
- Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2005. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Working Papers 2005-18, CEPII research center.
- Bchir, Mohamed Hedi & Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David, 2005. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Working Papers 18873, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadrature," GTAP Technical Papers 305, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Boys, Kathryn A. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2007. "Meta-Regression Estimates for CGE Models: A Case Study for Input Substitution Elasticities in Production Agriculture," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 9683, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Piermartini, Roberta & Teh, Robert, 2005. "Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy," WTO Discussion Papers 10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Hertel, Thomas W., 1999. "Future Directions in Global Trade Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 298, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Sebastian Hess & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2007.
"Meta-analysis of general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha Round outcomes,"
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 281-286, December.
- Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Doha Round Outcomes," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25512, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2005. "The Income Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta-Analysis of Empirical Results ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 513-533, 07.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:catpcp:43466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.