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Effects of Serbian Accession to the European Union


  • Mario Holzner

    () (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Austria)

  • Valentina Ivanić

    () (The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies “Vojvodina-CESS“, Serbia)


In this article, the global simulation model (GSIM) of Joseph F. Francois and Keith H. Hall (2009) for analyzing global, regional, and unilateral trade policy changes was applied to Serbia. This was to measure the effects of full trade liberalization with the EU after Serbian accession to the EU. As anticipated, most of the changes in welfare after full liberalization of trade between Serbia and EU can be expected in sectors where Serbia has specialized; protection against imports from the EU is strong. However, losses could also occur in sectors that currently face strong protection against the rest of the world and this protection is lost after EU accession. Trade liberalization will lead to a substantial loss of tariff revenues. Reduced consumer prices might, on the one hand increase consumer surplus but on the other hand decrease producer surplus and output in certain industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Holzner & Valentina Ivanić, 2012. "Effects of Serbian Accession to the European Union," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(3), pages 355-367, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:59:y:2012:i:3:p:355-367

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," Working Papers 127055, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Holzner Mario, 2008. "GSIM Measurement of the Effects of the EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey on Agricultural Trade," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 3(1), pages 7-14, April.
    3. Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25380, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Joseph Francois & H. Keith Hall, 2009. "Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy: the GSIM model," IIDE Discussion Papers 20090803, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    5. Patrick A. Messerlin, 2001. "Measuring the Costs of Protection in Europe: European Commercial Policy in the 2000s," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 102.
    6. Mario Holzner, 2004. "GSIM Measurement of the Costs of Protection in Southeast Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 55, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. David Vanzetti & Santiago Fernandez de Córdoba & Veronica Chau, 2005. "Banana Split: How Eu Policies Divide Global Producers," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 31, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.

    More about this item


    Cost of protection; Partial equilibrium model; Trade policy modelling; Serbia;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation


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