IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare06/137782.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Zohrabyan, Tatevik
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

Extending the previous work by Bessler et. al. (2003), this paper examines dynamic relationships in the international wheat markets by employing five different base (country) currencies and a basket of currency. The stable aggregate currency (SAC) is proposed as the basket currency to be used in examining wheat price dynamics as opposed to individual base currencies or other possible baskets. Employing directed acyclic graphs and standard moving average representations, we compare the results from the SAC currency to those from prices converted in five base currencies. The findings are dependent upon the base currency choice; however, in all cases Canada is the dominant power in affecting world wheat price, whereas, the price innovations pass through the U.S. and Australia to the rest of the world. Furthermore, Europe and Argentina are information “sinks” as they receive but do not transmit new information. A possible latent variable associated with wheat pricing in the European Union appears to mediate information flows between Europe and Argentina and between Europe and Australia. Given the stability and low correlation properties of SAC, it is proposed to use SAC when studying price dynamics across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Bessler, David A., 2006. "On Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137782, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare06:137782
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.137782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/137782/files/2006_bessler.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.137782?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hovanov, Nikolai V. & Kolari, James W. & Sokolov, Mikhail V., 2004. "Computing currency invariant indices with an application to minimum variance currency baskets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1481-1504, June.
    2. David A Bessler & Jian Yang & Metha Wongcharupan, 2003. "Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 1-33, February.
    3. David Bessler & James Kolari & Thein Maung, 2011. "Dynamic linkages among equity markets: local versus basket currencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1703-1719.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter G. Fennell & David J. P. O’Sullivan & Antoine Godin & Stephen Kinsella, 2016. "Is It Possible to Visualise Any Stock Flow Consistent Model as a Directed Acyclic Graph?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 307-316, August.
    2. Lee, Andrew C. & Kim, Man-Keun, 2004. "Causality Among Fed Cattle Market Variables: Directed Acyclic Graphs Analysis Of Captive Supply," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20124, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Michael Kunkler, 2023. "Synthetic money: Addressing the budget‐constraint issue," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3774-3788, October.
    4. Nigatu, Getachew & Adjemian, Michael K., 2016. "The U.S. Role in the Price Determination of Major Agricultural Commodities," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236045, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    6. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    7. Lajos Zoltán Bakucs & Bernhard Brümmer & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Imre Fertő, 2012. "Wheat market integration between Hungary and Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 785-788, May.
    8. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(3), pages 1-24, November.
    9. Carvalho, Glauco Rodrigues & Bessler, David & Hemme, Torsten & Schröer-Merker, Eva, 2015. "Understanding International Milk Price Relationships," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196692, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl & Ernst-Oliver Ledebur, 2015. "Price Transmissions During Financialization and Turmoil: New Evidence from North American and European Agricultural Futures," CQE Working Papers 3815, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    11. Arnade, Carlos Anthony, 2006. "Shock Absorbing Prices, a Look at Cattle and Feed," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21408, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Contemporaneous causal orderings of US corn cash prices through directed acyclic graphs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 731-758, March.
    14. Ho, Lok Sang, 2018. "In search of a unit of stable global purchasing power," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 99-108.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.
    17. Dragan Miljkovic & Cole Goetz, 2023. "Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 104-117, January.
    18. Pavel Konyukhovskiy & Victoria Holodkova & Aleksander Titov, 2019. "Modeling Competition between Countries in the Development of Arctic Resources," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Hovanov, Nikolai V. & Kolari, James W. & Sokolov, Mikhail V., 2007. "Synthetic money," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 161-168.
    20. Peter G. Fennell & David O'Sullivan & Antoine Godin & Stephen Kinsella, 2014. "Visualising stock flow consistent models as directed acyclic graphs," Papers 1409.4541, arXiv.org.
    21. Ruth Eegunjobi & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Dynamic Relationships between Seafood Exports, Exchange Rate and Industrial Upgrading," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare06:137782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.