The Economic Impact of Zero Tillage Adoption on Wheat Production in Bihar, India: A Panel Data Analysis

This study evaluates the economic impact of Zero Tillage (ZT) adoption on wheat production in Bihar, a key agricultural region in India’s Indo-Gangetic Plains. Zero Tillage practices, which eliminate plowing and enable direct seeding, hold promise for reducing production costs and enhancing resilience amid growing challenges such as climate variability, soil degradation, and labor scarcity. Despite its potential, ZT adoption in Bihar has been uneven, hindered by limited access to equipment and uncertainty regarding its performance. Using panel data from 961 wheat-producing households across four agricultural seasons, the study applies a difference-in-differences approach that accounts for staggered adoption and time-varying treatment effects. The results show that the timing of adoption significantly influences outcomes: early adopters experienced short-term productivity gains and reduced input use, but these effects weakened in years with adverse weather. In contrast, later adopters demonstrated more consistent improvements in productivity and efficiency, likely reflecting learning effects and better environmental alignment. Robustness checks using placebo tests reinforce the credibility of the findings. This research provides valuable insights for policies aimed at promoting sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture in vulnerable regions of South Asia.