IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea26/404702.html

Nonlinear Heat Effects in South African Maize

Author

Listed:
  • O'Neill, Connor
  • Ala-Kokko, Kristiina
  • Nalley, L. Lanier
  • Tack, Jesse
  • Ma'ali, Safiah
  • Smith, Harrison
  • De Steur, Hans
  • Elli, Elvis

Abstract

In South Africa, maize (Zea mays) plays a pivotal role in the agricultural economy and food security of the country, but climate change threatens the agricultural productivity of this crop. This study aims to estimate the change in maize yield associated with a 1°C and 2°C temperature increase in South Africa. Using a robust dataset of 38,742 dryland maize yield observations from 1986 to 2018 at 92 trial locations across South Africa, we employ a fixed effects modeling approach to estimate the change in yield. Results suggest that a 1°C increase is associated with a 7.86% decrease in maize yield, and a 2°C increase is associated with a 17.31% decrease. The robustness of these results reinforces the necessity for focused policy and research on climate change alleviation in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Neill, Connor & Ala-Kokko, Kristiina & Nalley, L. Lanier & Tack, Jesse & Ma'ali, Safiah & Smith, Harrison & De Steur, Hans & Elli, Elvis, 2026. "Nonlinear Heat Effects in South African Maize," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404702, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404702
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/404702/files/177646_195439_115232_AAEA_2026_Paper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.404702?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kazi Ahmed & Guiling Wang & Miao Yu & Jawoo Koo & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 321-334, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Emeka Emmanuel Osuji & Ifeoma Quinette Anugwa & Nneka Maris Chidiebere-Mark, 2024. "Impacts of biocapacity, climate change, food vulnerability, readiness and adaptive capacity on cereal crops yield: evidence from Africa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 11979-12003, May.
    2. Riao, Dao & Guga, Suri & Bao, Yongbin & Liu, Xingping & Tong, Zhijun & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Non-overlap of suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    3. Yang, Meijian & Wang, Guiling & Lazin, Rehenuma & Shen, Xinyi & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2021. "Impact of planting time soil moisture on cereal crop yield in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: A novel insight towards agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    5. Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Haggblade, Steven & Me-Nsope, Nathalie M. & Staatz, John M., 2017. "Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 27-38.
    7. Fanta F. Jabbi & Yu’e Li & Tianyi Zhang & Wang Bin & Waseem Hassan & You Songcai, 2021. "Impacts of Temperature Trends and SPEI on Yields of Major Cereal Crops in the Gambia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Fatih Kaplan & Ahmet Koluman & Ali Riza Aktaş, 2026. "Club convergence in cereal exports: Is climate change an important dynamic?," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 72(5), pages 273-291.
    9. Edem Douvi, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate change on cereal production in Sub-Saharan Africa," Post-Print hal-04704851, HAL.
    10. Cheng Li & Xiaojie Mao & Mingxing Zheng & Mingyang Han, 2024. "Adapting Seasonal Rice Cultivation Strategies for Food Security in Response to Climate Change Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
    11. Zhonghyun Kim & Taeyong Shim & Seo Jin Ki & Dongil Seo & Kwang-Guk An & Jinho Jung, 2021. "Evaluation of Classification Algorithms to Predict Largemouth Bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) Occurrence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, August.
    12. Bright K. D. Tetteh & Samuel A. Donkoh & Isaac G. K. Ansah, 2024. "Climate change coping and adaptation and its effect on livestock herd size and farmers’ welfare in the Upper West Region of Ghana," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(12), pages 30477-30499, December.
    13. Nuñez, Hector M. & Chakrabortu, Lopamudra & Robles-Chavez, Jesus Eduardo, 2021. "Impacts of Weather Shocks on Crop Yields in Mexico," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314988, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Mahama, T.A.-K. & Maharjan, K.L. & Issahaku, Z.A., 2018. "An analysis of Maize Yield Response to Agrochemical Expenditure using the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) matching approach," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277072, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Enoch Bessah & Emmanuel A. Boakye & Sampson K. Agodzo & Emmanuel Nyadzi & Isaac Larbi & Alfred Awotwi, 2021. "Increased seasonal rainfall in the twenty-first century over Ghana and its potential implications for agriculture productivity," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12342-12365, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.