IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea25/360962.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Diesel Price Pass-Through into California Grocery Store Milk Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Gafarov, Bulat
  • Hasbany, James
  • Hilscher, Jens

Abstract

We present new estimates of diesel fuel price pass-through into milk prices. We use Nielsen IQ scanner data from 2006 to 2023 to estimate average diesel pass-through to milk prices in California. We estimate monthly impulse response estimates using panel local projection, and controlling for core CPI inflation. This approach is unique as it delivers pass-through statistics down to the consumer level. We find that the pass-through is significantly different for organic milk (lower), conventional milk, and private label milk (higher). Transmission effects peak at 23% and 10% for private label and national brand conventional milk respectively. The effect of diesel price changes on organic milk are not statistically different from zero, suggesting a low share of transportation costs in the overall prices of high-markup milk varieties. The high pass through measurements show that the diesel price surge of 2022 significantly affected milk prices and thus contributed to the recent food inflation and cost of living crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gafarov, Bulat & Hasbany, James & Hilscher, Jens, 2025. "Diesel Price Pass-Through into California Grocery Store Milk Prices," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360962, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360962
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360962
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/360962/files/75257_94421_105300_Milk_prices_passthrough.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.360962?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gee Hee Hong & Nicholas Li, 2017. "Market Structure and Cost Pass-Through in Retail," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 151-166, March.
    2. Wei Su, Chi & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2019. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Further evidence in a global bio-energy context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 691-701.
    3. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:691-747 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    5. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:691-747 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    7. Ephraim Leibtag, 2009. "How Much and How Quick? Pass through of Commodity and Input Cost Changes to Retail Food Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1462-1467.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monika Roman & Aleksandra Górecka & Joanna Domagała, 2020. "The Linkages between Crude Oil and Food Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Claudiu Albulescu & Aviral Tiwari & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence between energy, agriculture and metal commodity markets," Papers 2003.04007, arXiv.org.
    5. Waseem Khan & Vishal Sharma & Saghir Ahmad Ansari, 2022. "Modeling the dynamics of oil and agricultural commodity price nexus in linear and nonlinear frameworks: A case of emerging economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1733-1784, August.
    6. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    9. Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio & Spelta, Alessandro, 2021. "Commodity prices co-movements and financial stability: A multidimensional visibility nexus with climate conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Kamaruddin Kamaruddin & Yusri Hazmi & Raja Masbar & Sofyan Syahnur & M. Shabri Abd. Majid, 2021. "Asymmetric Impact of World Oil Prices on Marketing Margins: Application of NARDL Model for the Indonesian Coffee," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 212-220.
    11. Tan Ngoc Vu & Chi Minh Ho & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2020. "The Determinants of Risk Transmission between Oil and Agricultural Prices: An IPVAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Cheng, Natalie Fang Ling & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    15. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Clark Lundberg & Tristan Skolrud & Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath, 2021. "Oil Price Pass through to Agricultural Commodities†," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 721-742, March.
    17. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Baumöhl, Eduard & Sarwar, Suleman & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets: Evidence from quantile coherency networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Mohamad B. Karaki & Andrios Neaimeh, 2024. "Do higher global oil and wheat prices matter for the wheat flour price in Lebanon?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 559-571, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.