Evaluating the Effectiveness of Arable Land Redline in China

As urbanization increasingly threatens food security, the preservation of arable land has become critical, prompting government interventions in land use to ensure food security. However, the effectiveness of these mandatory land-use strategies is often questioned due to the socio-economic complexities. This study utilizes China’s ALR policy as a natural experiment to assess the impact of arable land protection on food production. Employing satellite data and Difference-in-Differences with a continuous treatment model, the research examines agricultural outcomes in counties with different cropland restoration requirements before and after the implementation of the ALR policy. The findings suggest that the ALR policy likely reduces crop productivity. Although the sown area remains stable, there is a notable decrease in total grain output. Additionally, the study observes regional disparities. In Northeast China, the ALR policy has led to a notable decline in productivity with an increase in cropland restoration, resulting from substantially increased sown area without affecting grain production levels. This decline is likely due to the conversion of higher-quality farmland into lower-quality land. Conversely, in South China, the policy does not significantly affect crop productivity but results in a notable reduction in both the sown area and grain output. These effects are likely driven by labor shortages, which may lead to farmland abandonment despite restoration efforts.