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Pandemic Shocks and Agricultural Resilience in Ecuador: A Firm-Level Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts

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  • Botello, Hector

Abstract

This study examines agricultural firm resilience during COVID-19 using administrative data covering 45,127 firms in Ecuador from 2012-2023. We employ difference-indifferences methodology to analyze pandemic impacts across sectors and firm characteristics. We find that agricultural firms demonstrated initial pandemic resilience in 2020, outperforming other sectors by 10.3 percentage points. However, this advantage reversed during 2022-2023, when agricultural firms experienced delayed vulnerability with sales declining 13.0 percentage points more than other sectors. Within agriculture, small firms (10-49 employees) faced the worst outcomes, performing worse than both micro and large enterprises. Export-oriented firms sacrificed short-term sales performance to preserve market relationships, ultimately achieving better survival rates despite revenue losses. These temporal patterns reveal that agricultural resilience varies significantly across firm characteristics and time periods. The findings challenge uniform sectoral policies and suggest targeting small agricultural firms during extended recovery periods. Our results contribute to organizational resilience theory by demonstrating that firm-level characteristics matter more than sectoral membership for crisis outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Botello, Hector, 2025. "Pandemic Shocks and Agricultural Resilience in Ecuador: A Firm-Level Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360606, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360606
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360606
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    3. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
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