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IMPACTOS REGIONALES ANTE SHOCKS COMERCIALES Análisis de Corto y Largo Plazo

Author

Listed:
  • Burke César Nicolás
  • Moreno Agustín
  • Moya Gonzalo Nicolás

Abstract

China, desde su entrada a la Organización Mundial del Comercio en 2001, ha extendido y fortalecido vínculos comerciales con todo el mundo. Argentina no fue la excepción: con el paso del tiempo, China se transformó en el segundo socio comercial más importante, luego de Brasil. El presente trabajo analiza el impacto que tuvieron las importaciones de Argentina provenientes de China para diferentes subperíodos comprendidos entre 1999 y 2022, teniendo en cuenta el grado diferente de exposición a las importaciones de las provincias argentinas. Se analizan los efectos en variables de empleo, salarios y entrada/salida de firmas. Mediante variaciones espaciales en el grado de exposición a las importaciones, dada la especialización industrial de cada provincia, se estudia cómo los mercados laborales locales argentinos se ajustan a la competencia de importaciones chinas. En dicho contexto, para captar efectos a corto y largo plazo, el análisis del modelo principal se centra en cinco subperíodos, 1999-2004, 1999-2006, 1999-2010, 1999-2012, 1999-2022, siendo este último el periodo completo de análisis. El análisis de los resultados indica que una mayor exposición a las importaciones de China contribuye a efectos negativos más relevantes en la dinámica de empleo, salarios y firmas de las provincias argentinas.

Suggested Citation

  • Burke César Nicolás & Moreno Agustín & Moya Gonzalo Nicolás, 2025. "IMPACTOS REGIONALES ANTE SHOCKS COMERCIALES Análisis de Corto y Largo Plazo," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4781, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4781
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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